[Resuelto]El Asunto Siria

Los kurdos resisten mientras Turquía insiste en no intervenir en Kobane
Los milicianos y los ataques aéreos de la coalición matan a al menos 31 yihadistas durante el fin de semana
José Miguel Calatayud Estambul 19 OCT 2014 - 23:19 CEST

Los militantes yihadistas del llamado Estado Islámico (EI) han sufrido numerosas bajas en los últimos dos días y siguen sin poder vencer la resistencia de la ciudad siria de Kobane (Ayn el Arab, en árabe).

Al menos 31 combatientes del EI murieron el fin de semana en enfrentamientos con las Unidades de Protección Popular (YPG, en kurdo), la milicia kurda local que defiende Kobane, y en ataques aéreos de la coalición contra el EI liderada por Estados Unidos, según el Observatorio Sirio por los Derechos Humanos.

El EI, que controla buena parte del norte y este de Siria y del oeste de Irak, lleva más de un mes intentado tomar Kobane, que le daría control sobre una larga franja de territorio a lo largo de la frontera con Turquía. Esto ha convertido a la ciudad en un símbolo de la resistencia kurda contra los yihadistas y también por el derecho al autogobierno de los kurdos.

Considerado el mayor pueblo del mundo sin Estado, unos 30 millones de kurdos se reparten en las zonas limítrofes entre Turquía, Siria, Irán e Irak. En este último país, donde también sus milicias —los peshmergas— luchan contra el EI, ya cuentan con mucha autonomía. Además, el hecho de que la batalla por Kobane se pueda seguir fácilmente en directo desde el lado turco de la frontera ha llevado el asedio a esta ciudad y la lucha kurda a las televisiones y a las portadas de los periódicos de muchos países.
más información

Erdogan advierte de que Kobane está a punto de caer en manos del EI
18 muertos en Turquía tras las protestas por el asedio a Kobane
Kobane, ciudad mártir

Por su parte, el Gobierno turco, cuyos tanques están desplegados muy cerca de Kobane, justo al otro lado de la frontera, se niega a intervenir en la batalla o a dar apoyo a la milicia kurda, como querrían Estados Unidos y sus demás aliados en la coalición.

“Crear un frente contra ISIL [como se conocía antes al EI] podría significar dar armas al PYD [Partido de la Unión Democrática, en kurdo, el ala política de las YPG], pero para nosotros el PYD es lo mismo que el PKK [Partido de los Trabajadores del Kurdistán, en kurdo], una organización terrorista”, comentó en la noche del sábado el presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “No podemos decir sí a eso si Estados Unidos, nuestro aliado y [como Turquía] miembro de la OTAN, espera que consintamos en ese tipo de apoyo”, insistió Erdogan, según la agencia semipública de noticias Anadolu, que lo acompañaba en el avión presidencial de vuelta a Turquía desde Afganistán.

Erdogan también volvió a negar que su país haya dado permiso a Estados Unidos para usar la base militar de Incirlik. Ayer el presidente estadounidense, Barak Obama, lo llamó por teléfono y ambos discutieron “la situación en Kobane y los pasos que se podrían tomar para contrarrestar el avance de ISIL”, según un comunicado de la Casa Blanca.

Kobane explained: What's so special about it?
Syrian town grabs all the headlines in fight against ISIL - but does it really matter?
Tanya Goudsouzian Last updated: 21 Oct 2014 11:55
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Kobane on the Syrian-Turkish frontier now symbolises the Kurdish resistance [Getty]

Over the past few weeks, a rural town on the Syrian-Turkish frontier has taken centre stage in the US-led war on ISIL. The Kurdish-majority town of Ayn al-Arab, known as Kobane, was, like most of the Syrian countryside, unknown to the outside world until it came under siege on September 16.

Ironically, it is now being described as the most decisive battle in the US-led campaign against ISIL's region-wide ambitions - now that few discuss the fall of Mosul in Iraq.

For such a "decisive" battle, the hesitant international response to the Siege of Kobane came later than hoped for by the town's 45,000-odd inhabitants, most of whom were settled farmers. For days, Western media accused the US-led coalition of ignoring the escalating humanitarian crisis.

Neighbouring Turkey was also lambasted for failing to intervene as hundreds of civilians were killed - albeit, few eyewitness accounts corroborated the allegations. A number of hashtag campaigns were launched in support of the besieged town, including #SaveKobane and #USHearKobane in a bid to pressure the US military to take action in earnest.

Although the US did wage air strikes around the town, US officials have made it clear that Kobane is not part of US strategy. "Kobane does not define the strategy for the coalition in respect to [ISIL]," said US Secretary of State John Kerry on October 13.

More substantial assistance only came on Sunday when the US began air-dropping weapons and supplies to the Kurdish fighters, begging the question "why now?" And on Monday, Turkey agreed to allow Iraqi Kurdish reinforcements to enter Kobane through its border with Syria - even if Ankara considers the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) elements engaged in various battles as "terrorists".

RELATED: Analysis: Can US strategy defeat ISIL?

While the actual strategic value of Kobane remains widely mooted, what's missing from the debate is how exactly the once-irrelevant town become a powerful symbol of Kurdish national aspirations across the four corners of the notional Greater Kurdistan - as well as an important card on the Turkish negotiating table.

Iraqi Kurds long for the oil-rich city of Kirkuk - often dubbed the "Kurdish Jerusalem". For Syria's Kurds, many of whom trace their arrival to Syria to the 1920s, it is less a connection to Kobane itself and more about their oppression under the Assad regime - and now ISIL - that drives their campaign for autonomy.

"Kobane symbolises the Kurdish resistance, not only in Syria but in other parts of the Middle East. Its loss would translate into a defeat for the entire Kurdish nation," says Sirwan Kajjo, a Syrian-Kurdish analyst based in the US.

"The city has gained strategic importance now, partly because it is the first Syrian town to stand against ISIL for such a long time. Other Syrian towns and cities fell into ISIL hands without any resistance."

'The Turkish Kurds are much closer to the Syrian Kurds than to the Iraqi Kurds. They speak the same language - Kurmanji. Their villages were artificially divided by the borders imposed in 1921. Mustafa Kemal [Ataturk] decided the border would be the railroad because there was no other demarcation. So that meant the villages had to be divided in two.'

- Cengiz Aktar, Turkish analyst

Kobane/Ayn al-Arab was founded as a small settlement in 1892 during the Ottoman period. Then called Arab Punar in Turkish, it became a town in 1911 with the construction of a railway station there.

It was soon populated by Armenian refugees fleeing persecution in Turkey in 1915, although many were forcefully moved further south, scattered between Qamishli and Deir el-Zor.

The Armenians were followed by Kurds from Anatolia. The Kurdish name for the town, Kobane, is supposedly a bastardized version of the word "company", derived from the German company that built the railway. Others surmise it derived from the German word "bahn" for train.

In 1921, the town was split with the arbitrary demarcation of the border with Turkey - the Turkish side is now known as Mursitpinar, and it is there more than 100,000 refugees from Kobane and other nearby towns and villages are now camped out.

"The area of Suruc province is also called 'the Armenian cemetery' because of the thousands of Armenians who died there during the deportations," says Cengiz Aktar, a Turkish political analyst and senior scholar at the Istanbul Policy Center.

"It was a terrible place when the Armenians arrived back then, and the area has a tragic history. It is being repeated now."

For others, the symbolism of Kobane has little to do with its past.

"Kobane [now] lies at the heart of a Kurdish dream," says Mostafa Minawi, director of the Ottoman and Turkish Studies Initiative at Cornell University.

"It is less connected with history and more connected with future ambitions. Kobane was phase one of the implementation of a wider local-rule model [for both Syria's and Turkey's Kurds]."

Despite Turkey's 11th hour assistance in allowing Iraqi Kurdish fighters to cross into Kobane from its border, some analysts are pushing the theory that ISIL is basically doing Ankara's dirty work by quashing whatever autonomy Syria's Kurds have attempted to achieve.

"Syrian Kurds took advantage of the power vacuum in the country to set up three semi-autonomous cantons: Afrin, Jazirah and Kobane," says Aktar. "They were experimenting already with what the Turkish Kurds have been demanding for years in Turkey. So the end of Kobane, if it happens, will mean a big blow to Turkish Kurdish aspirations. In that sense, it is extremely important."

For Aktar, it is equally crucial not to underplay the kinship bonds between the Kurds of Turkey and Syria.

"The Turkish Kurds are much closer to the Syrian Kurds than to the Iraqi Kurds. They speak the same language - Kurmanji. Their villages were artificially divided by the borders imposed in 1921. Mustafa Kemal [Ataturk] decided the border would be the railroad because there was no other demarcation. So that meant the villages had to be divided in two."

This is one of the reasons, Aktar says, why Syrian Kurds have always been sympathetic to the struggles of the outlawed PKK in Turkey.

"Since the very beginning of the PKK, the Syrian Kurds were heavily involved. Out of the 40,000 or so PKK fighters who have been killed since 1984, about 5,000 of them are Syrian [nationals]. It's a huge number," he says. "And Turkish Kurds have been instrumental in lobbying for US support for their kin in Syria now."

On September 22, one of the leaders of Turkey's pro-Kurd People's Democratic Party (HDP) Selahattin Demirtas flew to the US where he met with US officials to persuade them to ramp up their efforts to help Kobane. On September 30, he visited Kobane.

VIDEO: Turkey's ISIL dilemma

Yet, beyond nationalist symbols and cross-border kinship, there are compelling strategic concerns for both Turkey and the US-led coalition if Kobane were to fall to ISIL. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proposed the establishment of a buffer zone - albeit, critics have already panned the plan as a Turkish ploy to occupy northern Syria, much like northern Cyprus.

Kurdish pundits have emphatically warned for weeks that the fall of Kobane would mean a major strategic gain for ISIL; they say it would grant the group control over the main road connecting its stronghold, Raqqa, with Aleppo.

However, as ISIL already controls several key border crossings with Turkey, some argue that such claims are exaggerated and the real value of the acquisition lies elsewhere.

For Aktar, the threat is bigger than giving ISIL just another border crossing for weapons and supplies.

"Kobane and the other cantons that are part of the Kurdish autonomy experiment are entirely flat. If Kobane falls, the two other cantons will fall easily because they are impossible to defend. And they are integral to securing the 1,200km border with Turkey. If ISIL takes control of the Kurdish enclave, they will have taken full control of the Turkish border."

Furthermore, an ISIL takeover of Kobane would mean defeating the forces of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (YPG) - and by proxy, deal a major blow to its sister organisation, the PKK.

Some pundits have gone so far as pointing out that ISIL's attack on Kobane roughly coincided with the release of the 46 Turkish hostages in Mosul. Questions have been raised over what deals may have been struck to secure the handover.
Kobane's injured fighters keen to return to battle

"For Turkey, [Kobane] is essentially a PKK issue," says Aktar.

Also at stake are Ankara's peace talks with the PKK.

"Ankara has taken advantage of events in Syria to toughen its [negotiating] position,” says Minawi. "PKK wants to send fighters and weapons to their cousins in Syria, and for that they need the permission and help of the Turkish state. Ankara, in effect, is using ISIL to bolster its negotiating position with PKK."

There have already been reverberations from Kobane in Turkey, says Kajjo.

"The peace talks have already been jeopardised, because Turkey's Kurds believe that Ankara is supporting ISIL, whether directly or indirectly," he says. Albeit, it's a charge Turkish officials have repeatedly denied.

Or, as Aktar puts it: "Ankara does not support ISIL, but they are certainly using the situation to their advantage. Let's just say, they are not unhappy to see ISIL overrun the [Kurdish] areas."

Opinion
Unmasking Turkey's ISIL strategy
Understanding Turkey's wider strategic concerns is the key to saving Kobane.
Last updated: 17 Oct 2014 08:31
James Denselow

James Denselow
Follow @JamesDenselow

James Denselow is a writer on Middle East politics and security issues and a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre.
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The Turkish-Syria border is a symbol of the endurance of the region's traditional borders, writes Denselow [AFP]

Picture the scene; amidst reports of massacres and atrocities tens of thousands of Kurds surge towards the border with Turkey only to be met by closed crossings. With the prospect of an immanent humanitarian catastrophe the international community is faced with a choice - to respect the norms of sovereignty and do nothing, or to take matters in a radical and different direction. Yet these events aren't from 2014 but in fact 1991 and it was Saddam Hussein's army not ISIL's militiamen who were the enemy, but understanding the events of this past helps to explain Turkey's policy of today.

In 1991, the radical direction the international community took in Iraq was in the form of a no-fly zone that would eventually lead to the creation of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), one of the most significant redrawing of the Middle East's boundaries since colonial times. Today, the ISIL blitzkrieg again puts the future of the region's borders in question. Globalised, transnational terrorism is partly a reaction to the failure of borders of old and ISIL has revelled in its very physical destruction of parts of the Syria-Iraq border as part of its claim to a wider neo-caliphate.

The Turkish-Syria border remains a symbol of the endurance of the region's traditional borders. The line marked by fences, minefields and now a deployed Turkish army quite literally separates safety from danger and order from chaos. Along this border, just inside the Syrian side, lies the small town of Kobane where the eyes of the world are focused.
Kurds warn Turkey over inaction in Kobane

US Secretary of State John Kerry has played down the strategic importance of the town placing the priority around protecting against the fall of Baghdad. However it is the very visibility of the battle for Kobane in the global media - covering events from a safe distance - that makes it so important for all the stakeholders involved in this conflict.

As in 1991, the Turkish closure of their borders today has already moved discussions to no-fly zones and potential "buffer zones" along the border with Syria. When Lakhdar Brahimi was UN envoy to Syria, he warned that the conflict would spill over its borders. ISIL are the most dangerous manifestation of this spill over and US President Barack Obama's new strategy is an attempt to reverse this trend.

Yet hopes that the US entering the fray would mark the turning of the tide are as of yet unfounded. Kobane's fate in the short term appears the litmus test of how the anti-ISIL strategy is going. Understandably, this has led to a huge amount of focus on Turkey's inaction. Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan responded to growing criticism saying "it's a great unfairness to claim that Turkey is doing nothing". As well as hosting more than a million Syrian refugees, many of whom the UN warned recently they may not be able to feed, Ankara has also granted US use of its airspace and bases, and the Turkish Grand National Assembly has voted to authorise the use of force in Syria.

Turkey, in charge of Nato's second largest army, could clearly be more proactive but won't do so unless they feel they have guarantees about how to fight ISIL without backing the "People's Protection Units" (YPG), who are the main Kurdish force in Syria and are linked to the "Kurdistan Workers' Party" (PKK).

The Turkish-PKK conflict has been a longstanding domestic problem going back over three decades with over 40,000 lives lost. This history (and the fact that there are some 14 million Turkish Kurds) hasn't simply gone away with the outbreak of the ISIL crisis. It doesn't matter how many times Kerry phones Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu unless the US understands how Turkey's domestic considerations are driving Ankara's foreign policy choices.

Turkey's foreign minister has said that it cannot be expected to lead a ground operation against ISIL in Syria on its own. Whilst Ankara talks of the need for Regime change in Syria this is likely a start of negotiations that could end up with Turkey getting an agreement for a de facto or more formal a buffer zone inside Syrian territory. This, combined with the reinforcement of Turkey's actual border with Syria, could act as a "forward border" that keeps the connections between the Kurds of Syria and the Kurds of Turkey at an arms length.

Indeed the positive relationship between the Iraqi KRG and Turkey demonstrates how much more comfortable Ankara is about dealing with the "Kurdish question" outside of its own borders rather than inside and Kerry has admitted a buffer is "worth looking at very, very closely".

Ensuring that Turkey's wider strategic concerns are understood is critical to winning the more immediate action that is required to save Kobane and it may see the borders of the region change again but with the addition of new ones rather than stripping away those of old.

James Denselow is a writer on Middle East politics and security issues and a research associate at the Foreign Policy Centre.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

La ONU dejará de alimentar a casi 1,7 millones de sirios por falta de fondos
La organización atraviesa una “crisis financiera” provocada por fondos que no llegan

Lea aquí el comunicado del Programa Mundial de Alimentos (en inglés)

Belén Domínguez Cebrián Madrid 8 DIC 2014 - 17:50 CET
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Una familia de refugiados sirios en Líbano, en una imagen de archivo. / Bilal Hussein (AP)
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Tan solo cinco días. Esto es lo que tienen casi 1,7 millones de refugiados sirios de los más de tres que huyen del conflicto armado que asola su país hacia los países vecinos —Líbano, Jordania, Egipto y Turquía— para proveerse de alimentos y afrontar un crudo invierno. A partir del 13 de diciembre, el Programa Mundial de Alimentos (PMA) que depende da la ONU, cancelará la ayuda alimentaria que ofrece desde el comienzo de la guerra siria en 2011. El programa, con sede en Roma y que ayudaba a la mitad de los refugiados de ese país, alertó el pasado lunes de una nueva “crisis financiera” en sus arcas, que responde a “promesas de financiación insatisfechas”.
más información

La ONU se ve forzada a reducir en un 20% las raciones de los sirios
GRÁFICO Refugiados sirios en Líbano
Réquiem por los refugiados sirios
Ganarse la vida en un asentamiento de refugiados sirios
“Ya no tengo ropa para los niños”
La ONU da la alarma ante el drama de tres millones de refugiados sirios
FOTOGALERÍA Mi nueva vida como refugiado

“Esto no ha podido ocurrir en un momento peor”, señaló desde Ginebra (Suiza) el alto comisionado para los refugiados, Antonio Guterres. Después de tres años y ocho meses de intensos combates entre las fuerzas del presidente Bachar el Asad y sus detractores —el Frente al Nusa, la Coalición Nacional Siria y, desde hace algunos meses, el EI, entre otros grupos minoritarios— el reparto de comida a los desplazados sirios es todavía un gran desafío.

“La suspensión de la ayuda alimentaria será desastrosa para muchas familias que ya están sufriendo”, vaticina Erthain Cousin, directora del PMA. Si los donantes no aportan 64 millones de dólares (51,23 millones de euros) “inmediatamente”, la organización suspenderá la ayuda alimentaria para los desplazados sirios en Turquía, Egipto, Líbano y Jordania, la mitad de todos los refugiados sirios registrados en la región: 3.249.038, según el Alto Comisionado de Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados (ACNUR).

Las cartillas de racionamiento se han devaluado más de la mitad: de los 30 a los 13 dólares

La Comisión Europea ha anunciado este lunes una ayuda de 5,5 millones de euros para el PMA. "Estamos explorando todas las vías para aumentar la movilización de recursos". afirmó el comisario europeo de Ayuda Humanitaria, Christos Stylianides. Noruega, por su parte, tiene la "intención" de aportar ocho millones de euros para el PMA, según un comunicado del Ministerio de Exteriores. Estas cantidades, sin embargo, no cubren las necesidades "urgentes" que reclama la ONU.

Esto significa que, de momento y hasta el mes de febrero, solo seguirán recibiendo alimentos los 225.373 ciudadanos de Siria que huyeron a Irak, país azotado por otra guerra —esta vez contra el Estado Islámico (EI)—, y que ha generado también oleadas de refugiados en países limítrofes.

1.7M Syrian @Refugees will go hungry. Our A.Guterres appeals for immediate funding for @WFP http://t.co/BtrzpNKFzv pic.twitter.com/xTGXpYgrf6
— Za'atari Camp (@ZaatariCamp) diciembre 2, 2014

La situación es catastrófica. Al duro invierno —ya se han alcanzado temperaturas mínimas de 0 grados centígrados en algunos puntos de la zona— hay que sumar la necesidad de impermeabilizar muchos refugios. Y la dura realidad se extiende ahora por casi toda la región de Oriente Próximo, según el PMA. En Egipto, más de la mitad de los 137.504 desplazados sirios registrados, según los últimos datos de ACNUR del 1 de diciembre, han comenzado ya a ver cómo las cartillas de racionamiento se han devaluado. Su valor ha bajado de 30 dólares a solo 13. Y lo mismo ocurre en Turquía, donde la ONU ha rebajado de 30 dólares a 13,6 el valor de esas cartillas, que permiten a 230.000 refugiados de los 963.540 registrados por ACNUR comprar bienes de primera necesidad como arroz, aceite de girasol, harina, azúcar y pasta.

“El armario está completamente vacío”, asegura desde su oficina en Roma (sede del PMA) Emilia Casella, una de las portavoces de la organización. Además, UNICEF (la agencia de la ONU para la infancia), resaltó el jueves en un comunicado que "muchos niños [sirios] podrían verse obligados a trabajar para contribuir a los ingresos familiares con los que adquirir alimentos básicos".

El caso más dramático es, no obstante, el de Líbano, donde reside el grueso de los refugiados sirios, más de 1,1 millones. Allí, el PMA “ya ha suspendido la ayuda alimentaria”, según Casella. Además, el 56% de las necesidades están aún por cubrir económicamente, según ACNUR. Aun así, la organización para los refugiados ha conseguido recaudar 56 millones de dólares para que unas 660.000 personas puedan superar este invierno.

"Si recibimos dinero suficiente en diciembre, la asistencia a los refugiados sirios se reanudará", asegura el comunicado del PMA. Podría sonar a llamada desesperada para recaudar fondos en tiempo récord. Lo cierto es, sin embargo, que la situación en Siria es "muy preocupante", según apunta desde Ginebra Hillel Neuer, director ejecutivo de UN Watch, una ONG independiente cuya misión es controlar el trabajo de la ONU sobre el terreno. "No podemos emitir un juicio respecto a la necesidad desesperada de fondos del PMA, puesto que no tenemos información desde dentro de las misiones que realiza la organización", sostiene Neuer.

El pasado abril, la ONU ya se vio obligada a reducir las raciones de los sirios que permanecían aún en sus hogares en un 20% por “falta de liquidez”. Además, como explicó entonces Jaled Erksussi, encargado de la misión conjunta entre ACNUR y la Media Luna Roja que repartía alimentos en Siria, era peligroso adentrarse en las zonas rebeldes, donde se registraba una de las crisis humanitarias más graves.

La ONU pide una financiación "sin precedentes"

Naciones Unidas ha hecho un llamamiento este mismo lunes a los donantes para conseguir un objetivo de 16.400 millones de dólares (13.300 millones de euros) para 2015. Son 2.000 millones más que lo demandado para 2014, algo que bate el récord de campaña para la financiación humanitaria.

Además de que no se han cubierto las expectativas de financiación, dice la organización sobre el incremento de las peticiones, han aumentado las personas en situación de vulnerabilidad. La ONU estima que 57,5 millones de personas en 22 países estarán en situación de riesgo en 2015.

El 80% de los recursos recaudados por Naciones Unidas se utilizarían para ofrecer ayuda a las víctimas de las guerras y de otras situaciones de extrema violencia; especialmente los ciudadanos sirios, para los que la ONU busca 4.400 millones de dólares adicionales.

En 2014, Siria, República Centroafricana y Sudán del Sur ocupaban el grueso de la ayuda, pero para 2015 la ONU ha decidido elevar a un nivel "prioritario" las situaciones provocadas por el conflicto en Ucrania, el Ébola y el Estado Islámico.

"Las necesidades a las que nos enfrentamos no tienen precedentes", sostuvo Valérie Amos, jefa de la ONU de asuntos humanitarios.

Fue 2014 el año más mortífero en Siria

Comerciantes venden fruta en las calles destruidas de Aleppo. Foto: Reuters
Assad cenó con los efectivos en Noche Vieja. Foto: AFP
El Presidente sirio, Bashar al-Assad, visitó a soldados en la zona de combate de Jobar. Foto: Reuters
Comerciantes venden fruta en las calles destruidas de Aleppo. Foto: Reuters
Assad cenó con los efectivos en Noche Vieja. Foto: AFP

PrevNext
AFP
Beirut, Líbano (01 enero 2015).-
Aumentan las víctimas
Número de muertos en 2014 por la guerra
17 mil 790 civiles
15 mil 747 rebeldes
16 mil 979 yihadistas
12 mil 861 soldados
9 mil 766 milicianos pro régimen
2 mil 167 milicianos extranjeros
Más de 76 mil personas murieron en Siria en 2014, entre ellas miles de niños, en lo que constituye hasta ahora el año más sangriento del conflicto en el país, informó una organización independiente.

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Según el balance publicado por el Observatorio Sirio de los Derechos Humanos (OSH), más de 76 mil personas murieron en 2014 frente a las más de 73 mil de 2013 y las 50 mil de 2012.

Entre los 17 mil 790 civiles muertos hay 3 mil 501 niños, según esta ONG, que informa a través de una red de fuentes civiles, médicas y militares en Siria.

Entre las víctimas también hay 15 mil 747 rebeldes y 16 mil 979 yihadistas, en su mayoría extranjeros.

"Este año (2014) hemos constado un aumento del número de yihadistas extranjeros muertos", indicó Rami Abdel Rahman, director del OSDH.

En el bando leal al régimen murieron 12 mil 861 soldados, así como 9 mil 766 milicianos pro régimen y 2 mil 167 milicianos extranjeros, 366 de ellos combatientes del Hezbolá chiita libanés.

Otras 345 muertos no fueron identificados.

Desde que empezó el conflicto, en marzo de 2011, más de 200 mil personas han muerto, según el OSDH, que recuerda que su balance no incluye a las miles de personas desaparecidas en las cárceles del régimen o en las zonas controladas por los yihadistas.

Visita Assad línea de combate


Para marcar el Año Nuevo, el Presidente sirio, Bashar al-Assad, inspeccionó ayer el barrio de Jobar, en el este de Damasco, escenario de violentos combates entre fuerzas del régimen y rebeldes.

Dirigiéndose a los soldados deseó la "victoria" para 2015.

La Presidencia publicó en las redes sociales una foto de Assad sonriente, hablando con dos militares al lado de un tanque. En las imágenes de la televisión oficial se le ve comiendo con soldados y hablando con ellos, al tiempo que se oyen disparos.

Desde septiembre, el régimen lleva a cabo su principal ofensiva en Jobar, en manos de los rebeldes desde el verano de 2013, para evitar que se acerquen a Damasco.

The Assad Regime Is Running Low On Soldiers

Pierre Bienaimé

Dec. 29, 2014, 2:34 PM
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Bashar AssadREUTERS/SANA/HandoutSyrian president Bashar Assad.
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Syria Says They'll Try Russian Peace Plan To End Civil War
The Syrian Army Is Shrinking, And Assad Is Running Out Of Soldiers
The Syrian Civil War Is On The Verge Of Getting Even Worse

Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is increasing pressure on draft dodgers in recent months, with arrests and regulations to prevent military-aged males from leaving the country, the Washington Post reported.

The regime called up thousands of reservists leading up to October and increased raids on public spaces and homes to apprehend those suspected of avoiding duty.

Checkpoints have also been set up to intercept anyone avoiding service in a 4-year-long war effort that may be losing popularity even among the traditional supporters of the Assad regime.

The efforts come at a low point in the Syrian military's overall manpower: Its ranks have fallen from more than 300,000 servicemen at the start of the uprising in 2011 to just half that figure, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.

The Washington Post spoke with a few Syrians affected by the new crackdown. One of them, a Syrian Christian living in Damascus, was called up as a reservist even though he completed his mandatory military service in 2009 (all men over 18 years of age in Syria contribute a year and a half of service to the country's military).

Combat fatalities have surpassed the 44,000 mark according to human rights monitors cited by the Washington Post, though desertion and defection have also contributed to the drain on regime manpower.

In contrast to this weakness, rebel groups around Aleppo, Syria's largest city, agreed last week to band together in their common goal of toppling Assad. The groups announced a "total merger under one flag and united leadership," according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Aleppo is one of the few remaining strongholds of Syria's secular anti-regime rebels. Maintaining a foothold within the divided and heavily-contested city is considered key to the rebel movement's survival, while the rebels' defeat in the city would greatly hasten a regime victory.

Mujahideen Army Moderate Syria Rebels 1Hosam Katan/ReutersA fighter from the Mujahideen Army, one of the groups that partook in a merger among rebels last week, walks through Aleppo on Nov. 18, 2014.

Neither the plunge in manpower or the new alliance in Aleppo is enough to suggest that Assad's regime is in imminent danger of collapse. Assad has frustrated expectations of his impending fall and the war has displaced millions of Syrians and left roughly 200,000 dead without toppling him from power.

The Washington Post casts the Syrian regime's efforts as a drive for a stronger negotiating position before potential peace talks encouraged by Russia, one of Assad's strongest foreign supporters. The last round of peace talks in Geneva collapsed in February.

Argument
The South Will Rise Again

The moderate, secular Southern Front is gaining ground in the birthplace of Syria's revolution. But can it survive long enough to tip the balance against the Islamic State and Assad?

By Dafna H. RandDafna H. Rand is the deputy director of studies and the inaugural Leon E. Panetta Fellow at the Center for a New American Security., Nicholas HerasNicholas Heras is the research associate in the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
December 29, 2014
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The South Will Rise Again

Syria’s civil war is heading toward a point of no return. Advances by the Islamic State (IS) in eastern and northern Syria and the resurgence of other jihadi organizations in northwestern Syria are pushing the remnants of the so-called “moderate” armed opposition squarely into the Syrian regime’s line of fire. Any hope that a secular, nationalist movement can govern post-Assad Syria is rapidly waning.

In the south of the country, however, an important force could represent an alternative to both the brutality of the regime and the jihadis. A coalition of secular and nationalist rebels known as the Southern Front (SF) has been able to hold territory for many months in the governorate of Daraa, 90 miles south of Damascus. Its model of rule deserves greater scrutiny: The coalition, which binds together roughly 50 armed groups, has generated a singular example of civil-military governance in Syria — creating a “third way” of local governance that threatens Bashar al-Assad’s depiction of the Syrian opposition movement as extremists and terrorists.

Since 2013, the SF coalition has relied on a combination of strategies to hold ground in Daraa. It has co-opted and forged tactical alliances with the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front; it has coordinated with the local militias and the tribes in the areas; and it is holding the military and ideological line against IS, al-Nusra Front, and other militant Salafist organizations, while fighting off the advances of the Assad regime and its auxiliary forces.

The SF coalition falls under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, but has generally disassociated itself from the political opposition, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), on the grounds that the SNC has lost legitimacy because it is primarily composed of exiles. Several of the most powerful rebel groups in southern Syria are active members of the coalition — such as Liwa al-Yarmouk, led by the charismatic commander Bashar al-Zoubi; and Liwa Fallujah Hawran — and since late 2013 some of these factions have reportedly begun to receive more substantial training and weaponry from Western and Arab countries.

The Daraa governorate is a largely agricultural region of 1,400 square miles, home to slightly over 1 million people, most of whom belong to Arab Sunni tribes with connections in Jordan and cousins as far afield as Iraq and Saudi Arabia. While the land is predominately rural and sparsely populated, it is strategically important, as it borders two important U.S. allies in the region, Israel and Jordan. While the Syrian Baath Party historically courted the people of Daraa, the Assad regime neglected much of this region in recent years. The region’s fate is highly symbolic, because it was here that the peaceful uprising in Syria began in March 2011.

SF rebel forces have made significant gains in the governorate in recent months. Currently, the rebel coalition is trying to secure full control over the provincial capital of Daraa, and to seize strategic regime-held areas north and west of the city, toward the city of Quneitra and the western suburbs of Damascus.

Despite its loose alliance with the local franchises of rebel militant Salafi groups, SF leaders espouse an ideal of a future Syria that is secular, nationalist, and multiethnic. SF leaders promised in their Dec. 10, 2014, communiqué that “the protection of all Syrian citizens, their property and their rights without any distinction of religion, culture, ethnicity, or political affiliation in accordance with International Humanitarian Law and the international standards of Human Rights.”

The SF forces have also attempted to mediate among the fractious rebel groups within their ranks, ensuring cooperation and operational unity. They have also offered reassurances to the minority Christians in the province, particularly in the large town of Izra, and continue to conduct outreach through tribal sheikhs and rebel coordinating committee members to loyalist Druze communities in neighboring al-Sweida province.

Moreover, the SF coalition has had some measured success working with the local councils to administer civilian aid effectively. Currently, brigades within the coalition protect local civilian coordination committees, offering security to the civilians who are providing municipal services and distributing humanitarian aid across the region. In addition, where possible, its forces are protecting critical local infrastructure such as wheat silos, wells and water purification plants, schools, and electricity grids.

To be sure, Daraa is far more homogeneous than almost any other area of Syria. It would be difficult to replicate the SF’s example of inclusive civil-military governance in more ethnically diverse and complicated governorates in the north, such as Aleppo. But the coalition still represents the type of partner that the international community seeks in Syria — credible and militarily capable enough to hold contested territory, while willing to countenance a future Syria that is secular, nationalist, inclusive, and respects minority rights.

Of course, the Southern Front’s tactical cooperation with al-Nusra Front is far from ideal. The two groups have tactically allied in the south because of their shared goal — defeating the Assad regime. The SF militias and al-Nusra Front also participate jointly in overseeing local social welfare programs. In many cases across Daraa, members of SF groups and local fighters in al-Nusra Front come from the same tribe, clan, and even extended families. To avoid conflict between the rebel groups that can devolve into tribal and familial blood feuds, the SF and al-Nusra Front have largely avoided fighting one another.

For now, SF forces are in a stronger position than the al Qaeda affiliate. As a result, they have the leverage to set the terms for the military revolution in southern Syria, and also to propagate its more secular, nationalist platform. If the SF coalition continues to hold territory and provide basic governance, it may be able to fend off the challenge from a range of Islamist competitors, who are known for their effective governance elsewhere in Syria.

Despite its shortcomings, the Southern Front coalition does provide a glimmer of hope amid Syria’s increasingly dismal political landscape. The international community should recognize the demonstration effect offered by the SF model in Daraa and more strongly support its local, indigenous governance structure — including by increasing military and humanitarian assistance to the armed groups leading the coalition. The Southern Front should be the focus of training and material support from the United States and its allies, allowing it to repel potential IS advances in the region.

Alas, Bashar al-Assad is well aware that the relative endurance of rebel rule in Daraa challenges his narrative that the West must choose between his regime and the terrorists. In the coming months, it is likely that the regime will try to retake Daraa to prevent just this sort of a secular, nationalist alternative from emerging. Therefore, any international efforts to “freeze” the conflict in areas such as Aleppo should take into account that the regime may use any freed-up forces and assets in order to turn its firepower southward. Freezes in fighting in the north should not come at the expense of those in the south, where rebel rule is providing one of the few blueprints for how Syria could emerge from

Abre Turquía centro para refugiados

Turquía ha acogido 1.7 millones de refugiados sirios desde el inicio de la guerra en 2011, pero solo 265 mil viven en la actualidad en alguno de los 24 campos de refugiados. Foto: AP
Turquía ha acogido 1.7 millones de refugiados sirios desde el inicio de la guerra en 2011, pero solo 265 mil viven en la actualidad en alguno de los 24 campos de refugiados. Foto: AP
Turquía ha acogido 1.7 millones de refugiados sirios desde el inicio de la guerra en 2011, pero solo 265 mil viven en la actualidad en alguno de los 24 campos de refugiados. Foto: AP

AFP
Estambul, Turquía (26 enero 2015).-
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Turquía acaba de abrir el mayor campo de refugiados jamás construido en su territorio para alojar a miles de sirios, especialmente kurdos, de la ciudad de Kobane, informó la agencia gubernamental de gestión de emergencias (Afad).

El campamento, situado en la ciudad fronteriza de Suruc (sur), albergará al principio un número relativamente pequeño de refugiados, pero está capacitado para dar cobijo a más de 35 mil familias, explicó a la AFP un responsable.

Las instalaciones cuentan con dos hospitales, siete clínicas, servicios sanitarios para los refugiados, así como aulas para 10 mil estudiantes, de preescolar al instituto, y también con lugares de deporte y recreo.

Se trata de un campo 'ecosostenible' en el que los refugiados podrán plantar sus frutas y verduras.

Turquía ha acogido 1.7 millones de refugiados sirios desde el inicio de la guerra en 2011, pero solo 265 mil viven en la actualidad en alguno de los 24 campos de refugiados, según la Afad.

La presencia de quienes viven fuera de los campos (que en este momento operan a plena capacidad), se ha convertido en una creciente de tensión con los residentes locales.

El Estado Islámico (EI) empezó a hacer avances sobre Kobane hace más de cuatro meses, asediando a las fuerzas kurdas para hacerse con el control de la ciudad.

La batalla ha provocado un éxodo masivo, y ya han cruzado la frontera con Turquía unos 200 mil refugiados provenientes de esa localidad.

El Observatorio Sirio de Derechos Humanos (OSDH) afirmó que los kurdos expulsaron a los yihadistas de Kobane, un golpe simbólico contra el EI.

Combatientes kurdos expulsan a los yihadistas del Estado Islámico de Konani

lainformacion.com

lunes, 26/01/15 - 18:26
[ ]

Las fuerzas kurdas han recuperaron hoy el control del enclave sirio de Kobani, fronterizo con Turquía, tras expulsar a los combatientes del grupo radical del Estado Islámico.
Cargando el vídeo ...
Los kurdos se hacen con el control de Kobani y expulsan al Estado Islámico de la ciudad

Los combatientes kurdos, respaldados por los bombardeos aéreos por parte de la coalición liderada por Estados Unidos, han conseguido recuperar el control total de la localidad siria de Kobani, cerca de la frontera con Turquía, de manos de milicianos de Estado Islámico, ha anunciado este lunes el Observatorio Sirio para los Derechos Humanos.

Durante las primeras semanas, su avance fue rápido y llegaron a dominar más de la mitad de la superficie de la población, pero este progreso fue frenado con la llegada de refuerzos "peshmergas" y fuerzas del Kurdistán de Irak, que acudieron en ayuda de las milicias kurdas sirias.

La localidad se ha convertido en un símbolo en la lucha contra Estado Islámico, cuyos milicianos se han hecho con amplias franjas de territorio tanto en Siria como en Irak. El Estado Islámico lanzó su campaña para hacerse con la localidad el pasado verano.

Al Assad cree que EEUU debería acordar con Damasco los bombardeos contra el Estado Islámico en Siria

Susana Campo

martes, 27/01/15 - 11:21
[ ]

En una entrevista en Foreign Affairs insiste en que los bombardeos de la coalición en Siria son “ilegales” y ofrece sus tropas para luchar contra el terrorismo.

Al Asad considera "ilusorio" el plan de EEUU para entrenar rebeldes contra el EI

Al Assad vuelve a la actualidad internacional con un larga entrevista en la prestigiosa revista Foreign Affairs, que ha publicado íntegramente la agencia de noticias Sana y en la que ofrece su particular visión de los cuatro largos años de guerra civil que sacuden al país y han causado la muerte a más de 200.000 personas, un millón de heridos y más de tres millones de desplazados, según la ONU.

El presidente sirio, Bashar al Assad, que se ha mantenido en segundo plano en los últimos meses, ha defendido que los bombardeos aéreos que lidera Estados Unidos contra los milicianos de Estado Islámico en Siria deberían ser objeto de un acuerdo con Damasco y las tropas sirias deberían estar implicadas sobre el terreno.

"Con cualquier país que sea serio sobre combatir el terrorismo, estamos dispuestos a cooperar, si son serios", ha defendido Al Assad, al ser preguntado si está dispuesto a adoptar medidas para facilitar la cooperación con Washington. Estados Unidos apoya a fuerzas opositoras que combaten desde hace casi cuatro años para derrocar a Al Assad, pero su postura se ha visto complicada desde que Estado Islámico y otros grupos radicales se han convertido en las facciones rebeldes más poderosas.

Desde que Estado Islámico se hizo con el control de buena parte de Siria e Irak el verano pasado, Estados Unidos ha llevado a cabo bombardeos aéreos regulares en su contra. Pero hasta la fecha ha rechazado aliarse con el Gobierno sirio pese a que ahora tienen un enemigo común. Por ello, Al Assad aprovecha la entrevista para insistir en que EEUU debería acordar con Damasco los bombardeos contra Estado Islámico.

Preguntado sobre qué le gustaría ver por parte de Estados Unidos, Al Assad ha dicho que Washington debería presionar a Turquía para que no permita que entren dinero y armas al norte de Siria y que estable "cooperación legal con Siria y empiece por pedir permiso a nuestro gobierno para llevar a cabo tales ataques".

Acusa a Erdogan de ser el responsable del conflicto en Siria

Bashar al Assad ha tachado a Recep Tayyip Erdogan de "personalmente responsable" del conflicto en Siria y le describe como una persona "muy fanática". Dice que se refiere pertenece a la ideología de Hermanos Musulmanes, que es la base de Al Qaeda por ser la primera organización del Islam político que promueve un Islam político violento a principios del siglo XX". Al Assad ha dicho Erdogan cree firmemente en esos valores, es muy fanático, y por ello apoya al Estado Islámico." Ha resaltado que los grupos armados opositores "reciben financiación de Arabia Saudí y Qatar a través de Turquía".

Precisamente, el asedio de Kobani, que acaba de ser liberada por las fuerzas kurdas, también es mencionado en la entrevista a Assad. Insiste en que el largo asedio al que ha sido sometido la ciudad, demuestra “la falta de seriedad de EEUN para enfrentarse al terrorismo”. También ha acusado a Israel de apoyar a la organización terrorista Al Qaeda con sus operaciones en el país.

Por otro lado, se ha referido a la buena relación entre Siria e Irán.

El pueblo sirio rechaza el terrorismo

“Irán es un país fundamental en la región y los era antes de la crisis”, y añade, “hablar de influencia en Oriente Medio es hablar de varias cosas, sociedad, ideología, tribus, fronteras…Irán no tiene influencia en nuestro país ni nosotros en el suyo, así que estamos dispuestos a cooperar”, señala.

“Si se me pregunta si las cosas 'van bien', respondo que todas las guerras son malas, porque siempre se pierde, siempre hay destrucción. La pregunta es ¿hemos ganado esta guerra? Lo que hemos ganado es que el pueblo sirio ha rechazado a los terroristas, concluye.

BREMMER: Putin is serious about entering Syria — and not to go after ISIS

Michael B Kelley

Sep. 8, 2015, 9:04 AM 52,898 34
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putinREUTERS/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday inspecting reconstruction of houses for people who suffered from wildfires in the village of Krasnopolye at the Siberian Khakasiya region in Russia.
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Obama's Middle East policy is reaching a crucial crossroads
The regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is weakening, and one of Assad's primary backers — Russian President Vladimir Putin — is upping the ante.

"Assad has lost significant territory over the past months; Putin is not about to tolerate his ouster," geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider in an email.

The regime has recently lost significant territory to Al Qaeda-led rebels in the north, Islamic State militants in the country's center, and nationalist rebels in the south.

The West, meanwhile, is ramping up air operations against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, as throngs of Syrian refugees flee Assad's barrel bombs and attempt a daunting trip to Europe.

Western actions that bolster rebel forces in the north — where they are fighting the regime in Syria's largest city, Aleppo, and ISIS in the countryside — and weaken Assad further could contribute to a settlement to end the war. This is where Putin becomes worried.

"If the West succeeds in turning the tide of the war while Assad is vulnerable, the political outcomes in Syria are more likely to be dictated by the US," Bremmer said. "Which means Putin needs to bolster Assad now."

And Russia seems to be doing just that: Russian military experts in Syria are inspecting and enlarging air bases. Others are setting up housing units for up to 1,000 personnel. Advisers are meeting with Iranian and Syrian counterparts in the capital. Russian drones and fighter planes are surveilling non-ISIS rebels in the country's north. And Russian armored personnel carriers with Russian-speaking troops are involved in fighting.

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A spokesman for Russia's foreign ministry told The New York Times that Moscow had "always supplied equipment to them for their struggle against terrorists."

Russia, however, agrees with Assad and Iran in its characterization of all rebels as terrorists, and given Putin's priorities, he most likely isn't too worried about ISIS.

Russia's surge in support is "less likely to mean helping the Assad regime combat ISIS directly — that's expensive and a job that the Russians would rather see the West take on (and suffer the consequences of)," Bremmer said. "But rather to best position Assad for the eventual terms of a weakened or post-ISIS Syria."

Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said on Twitter that Russian and Iran knew that without Assad, "there is no regime in Syria to secure their interests."

Consequently, he added, it doesn't matter if they like him — because he's the "only game in town."

syria
IUCA

Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif confirmed Tehran's view when he told reporters that those "who have set a condition about the Syrian president in the past two years should be blamed for the continued war and they should account for the bloodshed."

That statement does not stand up to scrutiny: From January to July, regime forces were responsible for more than three-quarters of the 10,300 recorded civilian fatalities inside Syria.

And since the war began in 2011, regime barrel bombs have killed more than 12,000 people, dwarfing the combined number killed by ISIS and Al Qaeda.

douma, SyriaBassam Khabieh/Reuters
A man with a girl who survived what activists said was heavy shelling by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad on June 16.

Nevertheless, Russia does not seem too worried about the West, given that the US has largely avoided Syria, and Europe is already looking for a way out of sanctions against Russia over Ukraine.

"Clearly Putin's not particularly bothered by continuing to frustrate the United States," Bremmer said. "And the Europeans aren't going to punish him for military engagement in Syria — they're more interested in coming to terms with Assad just as they're more prepared to see a frozen conflict in Ukraine (see Hollande's comments on his hopes to end sanctions)."

The fallout of all of this, according to Bremmer, will be more chaos — and more refugees headed to Europe.

"As the West presses ISIS while Russia provides direct support for Assad, the Syrians are caught in the middle," Bremmer said. "Anyone that can find a way out will. And the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe, four years in the making, is guaranteed to expand for a fifth."

A Turkish people smuggler reminds us of the No. 1 reason for the spike in refugees in Europe

Barbara Tasch

Sep. 18, 2015, 1:41 PM 13,626 16
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Syria's President Bashar al-Assad answers questions during an interview with al-Manar's journalist Amro Nassef, in Damascus, Syria, in this handout photograph released by Syria's national news agency SANA on August 25, 2015. REUTERS/SANA/Handout via Reuters Thomson Reuters
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
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Many things have been blamed for the refugee crisis in the Middle East and now Europe, including ISIS, the Arab Spring, and American intervention in the region.

Most recently, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad blamed the West for supporting "terrorist" organizations and thus prolonging the war.

But this explanation ignores what's really at the root of the refugee crisis: Assad.

A people smuggler in Istanbul, who spoke to BuzzFeed, said Assad's war was "about the only reason for the refugees."

He told BuzzFeed that he guessed that about 90% of the Syrian refugees he smuggled into Europe were fleeing Assad.

"It will never end," the smuggler said. "People will keep trying to get out."

And the war seems set to intensify as the Russian military bolsters its presence in the country.

From the start of the civil war, Assad has not just been targeting rebel groups rising up against him, but also civilians. Since January 2014, his regime has been launching barrels — filled with steel shrapnel and explosive devices — from helicopters right onto towns and villages.

This technique has killed huge numbers of civilians and rendered life unlivable for survivors.

syria
REUTERS/Ammar Abdullah

The Assad regime also directly targets civilians by bombing hospitals, schools, bakeries, and outside mosques after Friday prayers, claiming to target "terrorists" in rebel strongholds.

Just last month, an attack on a crowded market in Douma killed over a hundred civilians. His message to the population is clear: Either you support the regime or you die. This strategy leaves no other choice for many civilians but to flee.

Pegged as one of the most brutal wars in recent history, Assad's regime has also used chemical arms, torture, rape, and starvation against Syria's population.

So although some Syrians are also fleeing the brutality of ISIS, the majority of the refugees arriving in Europe from Syria are fleeing Assad's bombs.

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And Syrians are slowly losing hope that the war will ever end, forcing them out of their country and trying to find shelter in Europe.

Mohammed is a 30-year-old Syrian who has fled the country with his pregnant wife. He told The Washington Post that everyone he knows is leaving the country.

"It is as though all of Syria is emptying," he said.

Syrians now make up over half of the refugees who have arrived in Europe this year. This huge flow of people has been seen as a windfall for many economic migrants who try to make their way into Europe, making an already desperate situation worse.

Congress is investigating why US spy agencies missed warning signs on Russia's military intervention in Syria
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Syrian-Americans protest Russian intervention in Syria outside a Russian consular office in Santa Monica, California, United States, October 6, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Syrian-Americans protest Russian intervention in Syria outside a Russian consular office in Santa Monica

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior U.S. lawmakers have begun probing possible intelligence lapses over Moscow’s intervention in Syria, concerned that American spy agencies were slow to grasp the scope and intention of Russia’s dramatic military offensive there, U.S. congressional sources and other officials told Reuters.

A week after Russia plunged directly into Syria’s civil war by launching a campaign of air strikes, the intelligence committees of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives want to examine the extent to which the spy community overlooked or misjudged critical warning signs, the sources said.

Findings of major blind spots would mark the latest of several U.S. intelligence misses in recent years, including Moscow’s surprise takeover of Ukraine’s Crimea region last year and China’s rapid expansion of island-building activities in the South China Sea.

Though spy agencies have sought to ramp up intelligence gathering on Russia since the crisis over Ukraine, they continue to struggle with inadequate resources because of the emphasis on counter-terrorism in the Middle East and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, according to current and former U.S. officials.

A senior administration official, who also asked not to be identified, insisted that there were “no surprises” and that policymakers were “comfortable” with the intelligence they received in the lead-up to the Russian offensive.

Spy agencies had carefully tracked Russian President Vladimir Putin’s build-up of military assets and personnel in Syria in recent weeks, prompting White House criticism and demands for Moscow to explain itself.

But intelligence officers – and the U.S. administration they serve - were caught mostly off-guard by the speed and aggressiveness of Putin’s use of air power as well as a Russian target list that included U.S.-backed rebels, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"They saw some of this going on but didn't appreciate the magnitude," one of the sources told Reuters.

Russia’s sudden move to ramp up its military involvement in the Syria crisis has thrown Obama's Middle East strategy into doubt and laid bare an erosion of U.S. influence in the region.

A shortage of reliable information and analysis could further hamper President Barack Obama’s efforts to craft a response on Syria to regain the initiative from Washington’s former Cold War foe.

syria russiaThe Institute for the Study of War

BEHIND THE CURVE?
It is unclear how his administration could have reacted differently with better intelligence, though advance word of Putin’s attack plans might have allowed U.S. officials to warn the moderate Syrian opposition that they could end up in Russia's line of fire.

Obama, who is reluctant to see America drawn deeper into another Middle East conflict, has shown no desire to directly confront Russia over its Syria offensive – something Moscow may have taken as a green light to escalate its operations.

Syrian troops and militia backed by Russian warplanes mounted what appeared to be their first major coordinated assault on Syrian insurgents on Wednesday and Moscow said its warships fired a barrage of missiles at them from the Caspian Sea, a sign of its new military reach.

Russia's military build-up now includes a growing naval presence, long-range rockets and a battalion of troops backed by Moscow's most modern tanks, the U.S. ambassador to NATO said.

The U.S. administration believes it now has a better understanding at least of Putin’s main motive – to do whatever it takes to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But Washington remains uncertain exactly how much further Putin is willing to go in terms of deployment of advanced military assets, the U.S. officials said.

The lack of clarity stems in part from the limited ability of U.S. intelligence agencies to discern what Putin and a tightly knit circle of advisers are thinking and planning.

In a tense meeting with Putin at the United Nations early last week, Obama was not given any advance notice of Russia’s attack plans, aides said. Russian air strikes began two days later, including the targeting of CIA-trained “moderate” anti-Assad rebels, though Moscow insisted it only hit Islamic State insurgents.

“They did not expect the speed with which Putin ramped things up," said Michael McFaul, Obama’s former ambassador to Moscow. "He likes the element of surprise."

U.S. intelligence agencies did closely follow and report to policymakers Russian moves to sharply expand infrastructure at its key air base in Latakia as well as the deployment of heavy equipment, including combat aircraft, to Syria, officials said.

“We’re not mind readers,” the senior administration official said. “We didn’t know when Russia would fly the first sortie, but our analysis of the capabilities that were there was that they were there for a reason.”

However, several other officials said U.S. agencies were behind the curve in assessing how far the Russians intended to go and how quickly they intended to launch operations.

In fact, right up until a White House briefing given shortly after the bombing began, Obama press secretary Josh Earnest declined to draw "firm conclusions" on Russia's strategy.

syria russia caspian airstrikeSyrian Revolutionary Command Council in Hama via AP Video
This image taken from video provided by the Syrian activist-based media group Syrian Revolutionary Command Council in Hama, which has-been verified and is consistent with other AP reporting, shows smoke rising after a Russian airstrike hit buildings in the town of Latamna in the area of Hama in Eastern Syria, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015.

CONFUSION OVER RUSSIAN INTENT
One source suggested that U.S. experts initially thought the Russian build-up might have been more for a military "snap exercise" or a temporary show of force than preparations for sustained, large-scale attacks on Assad's enemies.

Another official said that after initial review, congressional oversight investigators believe that "information on this was not moving quickly enough through channels” to policymakers.

And another source said there had been a "lag of a week" before agencies began voicing full-throated alarm about imminent Russian military operations.

The senior administration official said, however, that “I don’t think anybody here perceived a gap” in intelligence.

In their reviews of how U.S. intelligence handled the Syria build-up, officials said congressional intelligence committees would examine reports issued by the agencies and question officers involved in the process, according to congressional and national security sources. At the moment, no public hearings are planned, the officials said.

Though the senior administration official denied the intelligence community was paying any less attention to Syria, John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said that not enough intelligence assets had been devoted to analyzing Putin’s “aggressive policies”.

McFaul, who took the view that the Obama administration had been largely on top of the situation as Putin prepared his offensive, said that a faster or more precise intelligence assessment would probably have done little to change the outcome.

“What difference would it make if we had known 48 hours ahead of time?” asked McFaul, who now teaches at Stanford University in California. “There still wouldn’t have been any better options for deterring Putin in Syria.”

(Additional reporting by Lesley Wroughton and Roberta Rampton, Writing by Matt Spetalnick; editing by Stuart Grudgings)

Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2015. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

Russian warships just launched rockets into Syria
Reuters
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Oct. 7, 2015, 9:00 AM 1,157 5

putin russiaREUTERS/Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in Sochi, Russia, October 7, 2015. Shoigu told Putin during a televised meeting on Wednesday that four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea had launched 26 rockets at Islamic State in Syria.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea launched 26 rockets at Islamic State in Syria which hit their targets, Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and President Vladimir Putin said in a joint television appearance on Wednesday.

Russia started its air campaign in Syria saying it would target militant group Islamic State. But its planes have also bombed other rebel groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow's ally.

Western countries, Arab states and Turkey, who are waging their own bombing campaign against Islamic State but also want Assad to leave power, say Moscow is using Islamic State as a pretext to target Assad's other foes.

Russia says the Assad government should be the centrepiece of international efforts to combat extremism.

Putin said it was too early to talk about the results of Russia's operations in Syria and ordered Shoigu to continue cooperation with the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq on Syria.

On Wednesday the Syrian army and allied militia carried out ground attacks on insurgent positions in Syria backed by Russian air strikes.

"The president of France, Mr Hollande, voiced an interesting idea, according to which it would be possible, in his opinion, to try to unite the efforts of the government forces of President Assad and the so-called Free Syrian Army," Putin said.

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France has repeatedly said that once a political transition had occurred and Assad had gone, government troops and moderate rebels would need to join forces to defeat Islamic State.

Shoigu said that on Tuesday Russia had summoned foreign military attaches in Moscow and suggested they supply Russia with any intelligence on Islamic State positions.

"Today we are expecting a reply from our colleagues and we hope they will tell us about those targets which they have," he said.

Shoigu also said Russia was ready to agree a document with the United States to coordinate actions in Syria.

(Reporting by Alexander Winning, Andrei Kuzmin, Maxim Rodionov and Denis Dyomkin; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

A look at Syria rebel groups as Russia, Iran, and Assad go on the offensive
Institute For The Study Of War
Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande, Institute For The Study Of War
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This reference guide provides a baseline for identifying Syrian opposition groups. The guide aims to permit researchers to track how groups realign as the Russians commence operations.

It seeks to inform the development of policies that aim to protect Syrian rebels willing to cooperate with the U.S. in order to defeat ISIS and marginalize al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.

The chart characterizes each group’s relative strength, its areas of operation, its participation in multi-group operations, and its sources of external financing (derived from other experts’ studies).
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The document carefully identifies those groups that are separable from Jabhat al-Nusra, drawing a sharp distinction between the al-Qaeda affiliate’s subcomponents and those groups that have a more transactional relationship.

Whereas the Russian military actions will likely drive these groups together, diminishing the influence of al-Qaeda actually requires breaking the groups apart. Targeting rebel groups writ large through military strikes is therefore counterproductive and will lead to entrenchment of al-Qaeda in Syria.

Russia's Impact on the Opposition
Russian air operations in Syria impose new pressures on Syrian rebel groups on the ground. Although the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian airstrikes focused on ISIS, local reports and the U.S. official statement indicate that the strikes have primarily targeted Syrian opposition groups in areas far from core ISIS-held terrain. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated rebel groups that receive support from the U.S. are among those that Russian warplanes have hit.

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As Russian airstrikes intensify, Syrian opposition factions will likely seek the protection of a strong partner in the fight against the regime and its allies.

The majority of the groups that may seek protection already cooperate militarily with Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra out of necessity, and this trend is likely to increase as rebels come under greater duress.

nusraREUTERS/Ammar Abdullah

The pressure of a reinvigorated air campaign in support of the Syrian regime may drive these groups closer to Jabhat al-Nusra and potentially hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham in the absence of alternative sources of robust military assistance from countries opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, between October 2 and October 4, two rebel groups merged separately under Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham in Hama and Aleppo provinces respectively.

This trend damages not only the U.S. anti-ISIS mission, but also the implicit mission to counter al-Qaeda’s influence in Syria. It is therefore vital to observe changes in the behaviors and affiliations of Syrian rebels in response to ground events.

Ejército sirio y los Comités Populares reconquista Estratégica colina en los Altos del Golán

Hace dos semanas, los rebeldes islamistas del FSA "Brigada del Frente Sur", Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, y la filial en siria de Al-Qaeda "Jabhat Al-Nusra" lanzaron una ofensiva a gran escala para capturar las cumbres restantes que rodean el Gobierno imperativo controlada ciudad de Khan 'Arnabeh dentro de los Altos del Golán.

Los rebeldes islamistas tuvieron algo de éxito en este esfuerzo militar, ya que capturaron la colina estratégica de Tal Al-Ahmar de Fouj Al-Joulan (Regimiento del Golan) y Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra (Brigada de Halcones de Quneitra) de las Fuerzas de Defensa Nacional (FDN) después de una intensa serie de tiroteos.

Una semana después, los rebeldes islamistas del FSA "Brigada del Frente Sur" tomaron el control de otra colina vital en los Altos del Golán; esta vez, el Cerro de la ONU (Tal Qaba'a) fue declarado bajo su control después que Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra se retiró al este de la colina hacia la ciudad de Khan 'Arnabeh.

Seis horas después de su retirada, las Fuerzas Armadas sirias lanzaron una contra-asalto para recuperar el "Cerro de la ONU", matando a una docena de combatientes enemigos antes de invertir las ganancias de rebeldes islamistas.

El martes por la mañana, 90a Brigada del Ejército Árabe de Siria - en coordinación con Fouj Al-Joulan y Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra , lanzó una contra-asalto a posiciones defensivas las Brigadas Frente del Sur en Tal Al-Ahmar, la captura de la colina de los combatientes islamistas después de una breve participación.

Con Tal Al-Ahmar recapturado, las Fuerzas Armadas sirias han invertido todas las ganancias rebeldes islamistas de su ofensiva en el interior de los Altos del Golán de la Gobernación de Al-Quneitra.

Syria 'is edging closer to an all-out proxy war between the United States and Russia'

Jeremy Bender

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Since the beginning of 2013, the CIA has attempted to train and supply the moderate rebels in the fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with enough arms and ammunition to keep the rebellion alive.

And these weapons deliveries ultimately helped fuel a proxy war that now involves Russia's ongoing military interventions in Syria.

"With the enhanced insurgent firepower and with Russia steadily raising the number of airstrikes against the government’s opponents, the Syrian conflict is edging closer to an all-out proxy war between the United States and Russia," The New York Times reports.

Since the CIA began the program, it has trained and armed an estimated 10,000 fighters, according to the Associated Press.

Among the most effective weapons funneled ito the rebels were TOW anti-tank missiles.

The overwhelming success of these TOW missiles have helped decimate the Syrian military's tanks and armored vehicles, negating a major advantage that Assad had so far had over the rebels. This allowed the rebels to score a large number of victories in Syria's northwest while coming close to threatening Assad's heartland in Latakia province.

A rebel invasion and victory in Latakia would do two things. First, it would almost certainly undermine the claims to governmental authority that Assad still claims. Second, it would place the rebels within striking distance of Russia's only Mediterranean port in the city of Tartous, necessitating further Russian involvement in Syria to protect their own strategic interests.

“It’s a proxy war by happenstance,” Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Liz Sly of The Washington Post.  .

“The rebels happen to have a lot of TOWs in their inventory. The regime happened to attack them with Russian support. I don’t see it as a proxy war by decision.”


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The effectiveness of the TOWs allowed the rebels to do better than expected against the Syrian military. For instance, after the Assad regime launched a Russian-backed counter-offensive against the rebels last week, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other affiliated rebel units carried out a "tank massacre."

According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, the rebel forces armed "with US-made TOW missiles … [and] other guided rockets ... caused the destruction … of over 15 armored cars, vehicles, and tanks," as of last week. That number has only risen since then.

White told Business Insider that the rolling hills and plains in north western Syria, particularly in Hama and Idlib, are ideally suited to the use of TOWs. Assad's armor has little protection or cover in the region and are ideal targets for the guided missiles.

Syrian rebel TOW missileScreenshot/www.youtube.com
A Syrian rebel targets Assad tanks with a TOW missile

This convergence of factors — the rebel successes with using TOWs, the ideal geography, and the increasing threat to Russia's own strategic interests in the region — forced a greater Russian reaction.

“A primary driving factor in Russia’s calculus was the realization that the Assad regime was militarily weakening and in danger of losing territory in northwestern Syria," Dubai-based consultant Oubai Shahbandar told WaPo.

"The TOWs played an outsize role in that."
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And now, Saudi Arabia is sending an even greater number of TOW missiles to CIA-backed Syrian rebels to help keep the pressure up on Assad as Russia also ratchets up its support for the government. Last week, the Saudis reportedly sent 500 missiles to the rebels.

"Five hundred TOWs is not an inconsequential number," Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, told Business Insider.

"I don't think it will be a revolutionary event, but it will increase the attrition of regime armor, which will make it harder for the regime to conduct offensive operations."

Syrian rebel TOW missileTwitter
An FSA soldier targets an Assad regime tank with a TOW missile in the Latakia countryside.

In response to the rebel advances and the proliferation of TOW missiles, Russia has stepped up its bombing campaigns against the rebels. In particular, Moscow has targeted weapon caches and rebel positions in an effort to stem their ability to destroy Assad's armor.  

"My conclusion is that the timing of [the Russian] intervention was driven by Assad really going critical," Rep. Jim Himes (D), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told the Associated Press.

In short, the unexpected CIA-backed rebel successes forced Russia's hand in Syria. And now Russia is trying to crush those US-backed rebels.

Jordania envía mensajes conciliatorios a Assad

Recientemente, el rey de Jordania, Abdulá II, ha enviado un mensaje al presidente sirio, Bashar al Assad, a través de una parte jordana cercana a Damasco, señaló el diario londinense en lengua árabe Rai Alyoum.

Según el periódico, los mensajes se refieren a dos temas. En el primero, el rey jordano afirma que su país ha detenido los programas de entrenamiento de grupos armados sirios en su territorio después de que la Administración norteamericana decidiera poner fin a los mismos.

El segundo muestra el interés jordano en mantener contactos a través de las respectivas embajadas en los dos países.

Algunos expertos han señalado que la intervención rusa en Siria ha convencido al rey Abdulá II de que el gobierno sirio de Bashar al Assad no va a caer y ha alimentado su interés en el mantenimiento de las relaciones, aún a costa de irritar a Arabia Saudí.

El mensaje del rey Abdulá II no ha sido el único gesto jordano hacia Siria en las últimas semanas. Este año, por primera vez en cinco años, el jefe del Estado Mayor de las Fuerzas Armadas de Jordania, Mohammed al Zabin Meshaal, envió un mensaje de felicitación a su homólogo sirio con motivo de la pasada fiesta del Eid el Adha, lo cual vino a significar, según algunos, que el Ejército jordano no estaba satisfecho con la postura de la Inteligencia General jordana, que ha trabajado con los servicios de inteligencia de Arabia Saudí, Qatar y EEUU para desestabilizar Siria.

Jordania se muestra también preocupada por el éxodo de militantes extremistas desde Siria a su territorio tras el fracaso de la llamada “Tormenta del Sur”, una operación fallida de aquellos para tomar la ciudad de Deraa, capital de la provincia del mismo nombre, en el Sur de Siria. Según algunas fuentes, Jordania ha cerrado la sala de operaciones Mok, que dirigía las operaciones de los grupos terroristas en Siria después del fracaso de dicha operación.

Ejército sirio causa graves bajas a los terroristas del Estado Islámico en la provincia de Alepo
Publicado: 16 oct 2015 16:02 GMT | Última actualización: 16 oct 2015 18:26 GMT
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Soldados del Ejército sirio
Soldados del Ejército sirio / RIA NOVOSTI

El Ejército sirio ha tomado bajo su control el alto Naaman, cerca de Alepo, causando graves bajas a los terroristas del Estado Islámico.
Todo sobre este tema

Guerra en Siria
Avión ruso suministra más de 20 toneladas de ayuda humanitaria a Siria
Ejército sirio causa graves bajas a los terroristas del Estado Islámico en la provincia de Alepo
Analista: La condena de la acción rusa en Siria por el Pentágono es irresponsable

Mientras tanto, las tropas sirias continúan su ofensiva en los suburbios de Damasco, capturando a terroristas y tomando docenas de edificios, señaló el portavoz de las Fuerzas Armadas sirias, el general de brigada Ali Mayhub citado por RIA Novosti.

"Unidades de nuestras Fuerzas Armadas lanzaron una operación militar en los barrios de Dzhobar y Harasta en el distrito Este de Huta. Han sido tomados bajo el control el complejo de edificios del fabricante de agua Rima [producción de agua potable embotellada], 25 edificios de la zona de Harasta y varios edificios del distrito de Dzhobar. Han capturado también un alto desde el cual se puede dominar las ciudades de Duma y Harasta", informó.

Anteriormente el Estado Mayor General ruso había informado que durante una amplia ofensiva del Ejército sirio fueron liberadas varias localidades en distintas provincias.

Así, el Ejército sirio ha liberado dos aldeas cerca de la ciudad de Quneitra, según el general Ali Mayhub.

"En el área de Quneitra nuestras tropas, tras encarnizados combates contra los terroristas, recuperaron el control de las localidades de Tel al-Qab, Tell Ahmar y sus zonas rurales, todas estratégicas", precisó.

Riad envía misiles TOW a terroristas sirios y Rusia despliega contramedidas

Un responsable saudí anunció recientemente que su país ha enviado a los grupos terroristas en Siria una nueva remesa de misiles antitanque TOW para combatir a las fuerzas del Ejército sirio, que están respaldadas por aviones rusos y continúan ganando terreno en el país.

El corresponsal de la BBC, Frank Gardner, envió varios tuits señalando que un responsable saudí había confirmado la entrega de 500 misiles TOW al así llamado “Ejército Sirio Libre” (ESL).

La entrega de misiles TOW -que también han sido suministrados por la CIA- buscan incrementar las capacidades de los militantes.

Los TOW son misiles guiados que pueden dañar tanques, vehículos blindados y otros y, a diferencia de los lanzagranadas RPG, pueden ser lanzados desde una gran distancia.

Sin embargo, estos misiles no pueden hacer nada para contrarrestar los continuos ataques aéreos rusos contra las posiciones de los grupos takfiris.

Por otro lado, la presencia de estos misiles TOW en Siria no es algo novedoso. La entrega de estas armas ha formado parte de un programa desarrollado por la CIA desde hace dos años. Desde el inicio de los ataques rusos, los norteamericanos y sus aliados, incluyendo los saudíes, han proporcionado cantidades suplementarias de armas a los grupos terroristas.

Respuesta rusa

Por su parte, Rusia ha enviado a Rusia un sistema de protección electro-óptico activo contra misiles antitanque, el Shtora (Cortina). Este sistema está diseñado para interrumpir el láser de designación de objetivo y telémetros de misiles antitanque. El sistema está montado sobre la series de tanques rusos T-80 y T-90.

Con este sistema los tanques sirios pueden anular los ataques de los misiles TOW, estiman los expertos.

El Ejército sirio ha capturado un número de misiles TOW en las últimas ofensivas llevadas a cabo en diversas partes del país.

Russian volunteer fighters may be headed for Syria, too

Assad and Putin in Russia

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad paid a visit Tuesday to one of his only allies, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Alexey DruzhininAFP/Getty Images

KYIV, Ukraine — Already notorious for joining the insurgency in eastern Ukraine, Russian volunteers are now reportedly signing up to fight militants in Syria.

Their numbers are hard to verify and likely very small. But they would be in addition to the Russian Air Force, which is waging a bloody intervention in controversial support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Kremlin ally, who visited Moscow Tuesday.

Media have detailed online recruitment efforts by Russians who previously fought alongside Moscow-backed rebels in Ukraine.
But Syria's war has nowhere near the appeal to Russian armed adventurers, analysts say, that Ukraine has.
The insurgency in eastern Ukraine gained steam with pro-Kremlin propaganda exploiting close spiritual and historical bonds between Russians and their neighbors.

Russia’s media juggernaut has tried to drum up support for the war effort in Syria, but it’s just not the same thing.

“How can you possibly explain to a fighter, on an ideological basis, why he should go fight for Assad?” says Alexander Golts, a Moscow-based military expert.

More from GlobalPost: A new US-backed alliance in Syria has the Islamic State’s ‘capital’ in its sights
Would-be fighters don’t appear to be lining up around the block just yet.

One recruiter recently told a Russian news outlet that his group receives 30-50 applications per day, but at best, only one is “realistic.” While he estimates that hundreds of Russian volunteers are now fighting against Islamist radicals in Syria, his organization can only account for “dozens.” Other estimates are even smaller.
That’s in stark contrast to the more than 2,000 Russian nationals, mostly from the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus region, currently fighting for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
More from GlobalPost: Islamic State recruiters are coming for Russia’s best and brightest
Another recruiter said taking part in the conflict is too cost-prohibitive and logistically challenging, according to the Financial Times (subscription-only page). Ukraine is only a porous land border away. Joining the fight in Syria requires a long flight plus an overland route.

Potentially drawing volunteers further away, a revered leader of eastern Ukraine’s separatist rebellion earlier this month said volunteer fighters are still needed there way more than in Syria.
Still, some observers were shocked on Tuesday after reports that three Russians, believed to be volunteers, were killed in an artillery strike in western Syria. Officials quickly dismissed that claim.
The prospect of Russian volunteer ground fighters marching into the fray raises a lot of questions, including whether they would target IS or a broader range of rebel groups alongside Assad’s forces.
Russia has come under heavy criticism for its airstrikes that have largely targeted anti-Assad opposition groups instead of IS.
Back home, however, the attacks are making President Vladimir Putin look good: His approval rating just hit a record high of almost 90 percent thanks primarily to the military assault, according to a state pollster.
Its involvement in Syria has analysts discussing a new layer of proxy war, this time between Russia and the United States, on top of a slew of other global rivalries invested in the conflict.

Russian officials have repeatedly insisted they won’t send in ground troops. In eastern Ukraine, Moscow has shrugged off questions about a troop presence by claiming that any Russian citizens fighting there were volunteers, even if they were often regular soldiers.

But Golts, the military analyst, believes the Kremlin has little to gain from taking the same route in Syria and will hold back from sanctioning any sorts of troops.

“I think the Russian leadership has enough wisdom to not play these games in Syria,” he said, “because it’s more or less clear that a military victory in Syria — or any victory at all — is impossible.”