Inglaterra se sale de la unión europea

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'Brexit': ¿Qué ocurrirá si el Reino Unido sale de la Unión Europea?
Publicado: 28 may 2015 10:25 GMT
Londres ha anunciado que el referéndum sobre su permanencia en la Unión Europea tendrá lugar antes de finales del año 2017. Aunque si los resultados del plebiscito dictan la salida del Reino Unido, las cosas no variarían mucho, opina el analista financiero Matthew Lynn y explica por qué.
..ReutersReuters
Un comercio colapsado. Millones de desempleados. La libra esterlina cayendo en los mercados. Hay un sinfín de escenarios apocalípticos sobre qué va a pasar si el Reino Unido vota a favor de abandonar la Unión Europea. En realidad, los inversionistas deberían ignorar el llamado 'Brexit', dado que realmente no se traducirá en una diferencia para la economía británica, sostiene Lynn en su columna para el portal Market Watch.

Sepa más: La reina Isabel II anuncia el referéndum sobre la permanencia del Reino Unido en la UE

La membrecía en la UE brinda una diferencia políticamente, pero la economía y el mercado de valores seguirán con los mismos puntos fuertes y débiles que antes, insiste el analista. Europa es el mayor mercado de exportaciones para el Reino Unido, pero nadie puede creer seriamente en que el comercio se verá afectado: Bruselas no tiene ningún incentivo para poner barreras comerciales contra Londres, acentúa Lynn.

Sepa más: Cameron: "El Reino Unido no debe quedarse en la UE a cualquier precio"

Si lo hace, destruirá su propia economía. El Reino Unido tiene un déficit comercial enorme con el resto de Europa, por lo que los países de la UE tienen mucho más que perder en cualquier tipo de batalla comercial. Está claro que no habrá un menor acceso al mercado europeo. Además, tarifas y restricciones a negocios son administradas por la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) y es muy difícil imaginar que las economías europeas, la de Alemania, en primer lugar, violen las regulaciones globales vetando las exportaciones británicas, destaca el analista.

Sepa más: Razones por las que Londres pronto afrontaría la salida de la UE

Por otro lado, las empresas internacionales tampoco dejarán de invertir en el país. Vienen, porque es un mercado grande, con un sistema legal estable, mercados laborales flexibles e impuestos corporativos más bajos de los que tiene la mayoría de países europeos. "Nada de eso va a cambiar. El Reino Unido seguirá siendo un lugar atractivo para basar un negocio", concluye Lynn.
https://actualidad.rt.com/economia/175996-consecuencias-salida-reino-unido-ue

Golpe en el corazón de Unión Europea: Inglaterra sale del bloque
INTERNACIONAL 23 Jun 2016

Foto: Especial
EFE
1 COMENTARIOUEBREXITLONDRES
La opción de abandonar la Unión Europea (UE) aventaja a la permanencia del Reino Unido por 4,5 puntos porcentuales (52,28 % frente al 47,72 %) en el referéndum

Londres.- Los ciudadanos del Reino Unido votaron este jueves por salir de la Unión Europea (UE) en el referéndum convocado por el primer ministro británico, David Cameron, según el recuento de votos ofrecido con casi la totalidad de las áreas escrutadas de las que está compuesto el mapa electoral.



Estas han sido las principales claves de la votación:

LA CONVOCATORIA DEL REFERÉNDUM

El primer ministro británico, David Cameron, prometió convocar un plebiscito si ganaba las elecciones generales en 2015 para dar respuesta a las demandas del Partido de la Independencia del Reino Unido (UKIP) y de una parte de los conservadores, que alegaban que el país no se había pronunciado sobre su relación con la UE desde que se realizara un referéndum idéntico en 1975.



LA PREGUNTA

Los británicos se enfrentaron a la pregunta "¿Debe el Reino Unido continuar como miembro de la Unión Europea o debe dejar la UE?", a la que debieron responder entre dos opciones: "Permanecer como miembro de la UE" o "Abandonar la UE".



QUIÉN HA PODIDO VOTAR

Estaban llamados a votar los ciudadanos británicos, irlandeses y de los países de la Mancomunidad Británica de Naciones (Commonwealth) mayores de 18 años que residen en el Reino Unido, los británicos que lleven menos de 15 años viviendo en el extranjero y los ciudadanos de territorios de ultramar como Gibraltar. Los residentes europeos en el país no pueden votar, a excepción de los nativos de Irlanda, Malta y Chipre.



CANTIDAD DE VOTANTES

Más de 46 millones de personas estaban llamadas a las urnas. Se podía votar entre las 7.00 horas (06.00 GMT) hasta las 22.00 horas (21.00 GMT).

PRECEDENTES

Ningún país ha abandonado antes la Unión, no obstante el único precedente lo conforma Groenlandia, territorio perteneciente a Dinamarca que se marchó del entramado europeo tras convocar un referéndum en 1982.



QUÉ SIGNIFICA "BREXIT"

Es una palabra que se ha estandarizado para referirse a la salida del país de las instituciones europeas y que surge al aunar las primeras letras de "Britain" (Reino Unido) con "exit" (salida).



QUIÉN QUERÍA QUEDARSE EN LA UE

La agrupación "Britain Stronger in Europe" lideró este movimiento oficial que ha contado con el apoyo de Cameron, miembros del Partido Conservador, la mayoría de los laboristas con Jeremy Corbin a la cabeza, los liberaldemócratas, los nacionalistas escoceses (SNP) y los verdes. Estados Unidos, Francia, Alemania, China e India también se muestran a favor de que el Reino Unido permanezca en la UE.



QUIÉN QUERÍA IRSE DE LA UE

La campaña oficial "Vote Leave" por marcharse del bloque continental la lideraron políticos de varios partidos, como los conservadores Michael Gove (ministro de Justicia) y Boris Johnson (anterior alcalde de Londres).


MOTIVOS PARA QUEDARSE

Sus partidarios alegan principalmente que formar parte del club favorecía a la economía del Reino Unido.



MOTIVOS PARA IRSE

Los partidarios de esta opción defienden que el organismo europeo impone muchas reglas sobre los negocios y que la factura anual de contribución por ser miembro es muy elevada, a la vez que piden volver a tener el control sobre las fronteras del país y reducir el número de inmigrantes que llegan.



CUÁNTO TIEMPO TARDARÍA EL REINO UNIDO EN SALIR DE LA UE

El Reino Unido tendría dos años, que se podrían prolongar, para fijar los términos y las condiciones de su salida con la UE. Hasta entonces, el país debe acatar los dictámenes europeos y no podrá formar parte de ninguna nueva negociación.



QUÉ SUCEDE CON LOS INMIGRANTES COMUNITARIOS

Los inmigrantes comunitarios pueden seguir en el Reino Unido durante los próximos dos años a expensas de las decisiones que pueda tomar el Gobierno británico, como implantar permisos de trabajo a extranjeros o seguir en el mercado común europeo.

La opción de abandonar la Unión Europea (UE) aventaja a la permanencia del Reino Unido por 4,5 puntos porcentuales (52,28 % frente al 47,72 %) en el referéndum celebrado el jueves tras el recuento de 14 de las 382 áreas locales en las que se han dividido los colegios electorales británicos.

En términos absolutos, 394.867 personas han votado por romper los lazos con Bruselas, mientras que 360.391 lo han hecho por continuar en la UE.

En Newcastle, la primera ciudad inglesa en hacer público su recuento, la permanencia en la UE sumó el 50,7 % de los votos, frente al 49,3 %.

En Sunderland, un feudo en el que se esperaba un resultado favorable al "brexit", la opción de abandonar el bloque comunitario obtuvo una amplia ventaja, del 61 % frente al 39 %.

En Gibraltar, en cambio, donde las encuestas pronosticaban una victoria del campo proeuropeo, el 96 % de los electores apoyaron continuar en la UE y tan solo el 4 % secundaron la salida de la Unión.
TE PUEDE INTERESAR
David Cameron agradece a británicos que votaron en el referéndum
Ante los primeros resultados oficiales que dan ventaja al "brexit", la libra esterlina descendió cerca de un 3 % en los mercados internacionales de divisas.

Un sondeo elaborado durante la jornada electoral por la firma YouGov pronosticó poco después del cierre de las urnas, a las 21.00 GMT, que la permanencia en la Unión Europea ganará la consulta con el 52 % de los votos.

El eurófobo Nigel Farage, líder del Partido de la Independencia del Reino Unido (UKIP), admitió que cree que el país ha votado a favor de la permanencia británica en la Unión Europea (UE) en el referéndum celebrado este jueves.

El político populista y antiinmigración dijo a la agencia británica Press Association (PA) que su pronóstico está basado en lo que le han dicho algunos de sus "amigos que trabajan en los mercados financieros" y que han realizado algunos sondeos.

http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/articulo/primeros-resultados-ponen-al-brexit-encima-de-la-permanencia-en-la-ue

Inglaterra decide hoy si sale de la UE; economías tiemblan
Agencias | Jueves 23 Junio 2016 | 00:00:00 hrs
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AFP | A la salida de una estación del metro un hombre reparte propaganda a favor de la permanencia dentro de la Unión Europea
AFP | A la salida de una estación del metro un hombre reparte propaganda a favor de la permanencia dentro de la Unión Europea
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Londres— El Reino Unido decidirá este jueves si sigue siendo miembro de la Unión Europea.

El primer ministro David Cameron propuso la votación en un intento de poner fin a años de luchas internas en su Partido Conservador acerca de Europa. Él quiere que Gran Bretaña siga siendo un miembro de la UE.

Si hoy los británicos optan por el “no” al ‘Brexit’, Europa respirará muy aliviada. Si gana el ‘Brexit’, las instituciones europeas acelerarán el divorcio todo lo posible aunque Londres quiera alargarlo para conseguir mejores condiciones.

Las razones del referéndum

Entre los principales temas de debate sobre la permanencia o no dentro de la UE, está la inmigración.

Los defensores de una salida dicen que el Reino Unido necesita limitar la migración para aliviar la presión sobre la vivienda, el bienestar, el empleo y los salarios. Uno de los principios de la UE es que la gente puede vivir y trabajar en cualquier país de la Unión.

Los defensores de permanecer en la UE opinan que la mayoría de los migrantes llegan a Reino Unido a trabajar, y pagan con creces por ello en impuestos. Dicen que cerrar la puerta privaría a la economía de trabajadores vitales, y señalan niveles bajos récord de desempleo.

Por otro lado está la economía. Los defensores de una salida dicen que los negocios británicos están sofocados por las regulaciones europeas. Dicen que el país, por sí solo, podría hacer más acuerdos comerciales con economías de rápido crecimiento en todo el mundo. Y argumentan que la UE seguiría dando al Reino Unido fácil acceso a sus mercados, ya que querrá seguir vendiendo mercancías a su territorio.

Los activistas dicen que abandonar la UE sería un desastre para la economía, ya que significa romper el tratado de libre comercio de Reino Unido con su mayor mercado de exportación: Alrededor del 45% de las exportaciones británicas van a la Unión Europea.

Una pregunta y dos respuestas

La pregunta que las personas se encontrarán en las papeletas de voto será: ¿Debe el Reino Unido seguir siendo miembro de la Unión Europea o abandonar la Unión Europea?

Luego tendrán dos casillas, una para votar a favor de ‘Seguir siendo miembro de la Unión Europea’ y otra para ‘Abandonar la Unión Europea’.

La Comisión Electoral prefirió esta opción al tradicional ‘Sí’ y ‘No’ de muchos referéndums, como el de independencia de Escocia, por la carga negativa que tiene defender un ‘No’.

En Gales, la papeleta está redactada en inglés y galés.

Horario de votación

Los centros electorales abrirán de 7:00 a 22:00 horas locales (de 00:00 a 15:00 horas, tiempo de Ciudad Juárez).

Signo de los tiempos, la Comisión Electoral desaconsejó tomar selfies en los colegios electorales por temor a que vulneren la privacidad de los electores.

¿Quiénes pueden votar?

Pueden votar los ciudadanos británicos e irlandeses mayores de 18 años residentes en el Reino Unido, los ciudadanos de la Commonwealth que tienen permiso de residencia en el Reino Unido o no lo necesitan y los ciudadanos británicos en el extranjero que lleven menos de 15 años fuera.

¿A qué hora se conocerán los resultados?

El resultado del referéndum se conocerá en la madrugada de este viernes, difícilmente antes de las 4:00 horas locales (21:00 horas del jueves, tiempo de Juárez).

Cada uno de los 382 centros de escrutinio repartidos por el país irá anunciando sus resultados a medida que los tenga disponibles.

El resultado nacional total y definitivo se anunciará en el ayuntamiento de Manchester.

La tasa de participación se conocerá antes que los resultados. Si fuera alta, se estima que beneficiaría a los partidarios de la permanencia porque significaría que los jóvenes, más proeuropeos, fueron a votar”.

(Con información de AFP y CNNMoney)

http://diario.mx/Economia/2016-06-22_af633f5e/inglaterra-decide-hoy-si-sale-de-la-ue-economias-tiemblan/

¿Po

r qué Reino Unido se plantea un referendo para salir de la Unión Europea?
Redacción
BBC Mundo
20 febrero 2016
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David CameronImage copyrightGETTY
Image caption

David Cameron aseguró haber conseguido los mejores acuerdos para que Reino Unido pueda permanecer en la Unión Europea.

El primer ministro, David Cameron, anunció que el referendo que decidirá si Reino Unido se va o se queda dentro de la Unión Europea (UE) se realizará el jueves, 23 de junio de 2016.
Cameron notificó la convocatoria después de negociar con los otros países miembros de la UE reformas específicas en beneficio de Gran Bretaña y que le permitirían abogar por una permanencia dentro del bloque.
"Nos estamos acercando a una de las mayores decisiones que nuestro país deberá tomar en nuestras vidas", declaró el primer ministro este sábado.
Los británicos votarán el 23 de junio si se quedan o se van de la Unión Europea
"La decisión va al meollo de lo que este país quiere ser y el futuro que esperamos para nuestros hijos", añadió.
BBC Mundo te explica cuáles son los elementos críticos de este proceso democrático.


¿Cuál será la pregunta del referendo?

¿Ondearán las banderas de la UE y Reino Unido juntas otra vez?
Cómo se formula una pregunta en un referendo es crucial.
La propuesta inicial de los conservadores hecha en 2013 fue: "¿Cree que Reino Unido deberá continuar siendo miembro de la Unión Europea? Sí o no".
Algunos pensaron que la frase estaba muy inclinada hacia el estatus quo y la Comisión Electoral, que debe aprobar la pregunta, consideró que no era lo suficientemente clara.
Así que propusieron lo siguiente: "¿Debería Reino Unido continuar siendo miembro de la Unión Europea o dejar la Unión Europea?"
El primer ministro y los miembros del parlamento aceptaron la fórmula.
¿Qué concesiones logró Cameron a afiliación de Reino Unido a la UE?
Tras dos días de intensas negociaciones, el primer ministro acordó con los otros miembros de la UE a un paquete de cambios.




Negociaciones en Bruselas

Hubo dos días de intensas negociaciones en Bruselas.
Los acuerdos, que entrarán en vigencia si la decisión tras el referendo es de permanecer en la UE, incluyen:
Prestaciones por hijos – Los pagos a trabajadores migrantes en beneficio de sus hijos que viven por fuera de Reino Unido serán recalculados para reflejar el costo de vida en sus países de origen.
Pagos de bienestar social a migrantes – Reino Unido podrá limitar las prestaciones sociales a los migrantes de la UE durante los primeros cuatro años de residencia en el país. La medida se llama "freno de emergencia" y podrá ser aplicada si se dan niveles "excepcionales" de migración pero tendrá que sus penderse, sin excepción, después de siete años.


Eurozona – Gran Bretaña podrá conservar la libra esterlina y comerciar con ella en el bloque, sin temor a discriminación. Cualquier aporte británico para rescatar a naciones de la eurozona será reembolsado. Habrá salvaguardas para proteger a la industria financiera británica de la imposición de regulaciones de la eurozona.
Soberanía – Hay un compromiso explícito que Reino Unido "jamás" será parte de una "unión más estrecha" con otros miembros de la UE.


Limitaciones al libre movimiento – Reino Unido podrá restringir la entrada de ciudadanos de países por fuera de la UE que estén casados con ciudadanos de la UE como parte de las medidas para frenar los matrimonios "arreglados". También podrá excluir a las personas que sean consideradas un riesgo de seguridad, aun cuando no tengan antecedentes penales.


¿Qué le negó la UE a Cameron?
El primer ministro quería prohibir completamente el envío de prestaciones a los hijos de migrantes que viven fuera del territorio, pero eso fue rechazado por algunos países de Europa oriental, que insistieron en que los reclamantes continuaran recibiendo pagos completos.
La restricción del pago de prestaciones sociales para trabajadores migrantes estaba inicialmente propuesta para 13 años, pero Cameron tuvo que contentarse con siete años.


Reino Unido, el socio esquivo de la Unión Europea
Algunos críticos del acuerdo sostienen que Bruselas todavía ejercerá demasiado poder sobre las instituciones políticas y financieras de Reino Unido y que Cameron no cumplió con su palabra de recuperar ese control.



¿Quiénes quieren que Reino Unido deje a la Unión Europea?
Según las más recientes encuestas, el público británico está más o menos dividido por la mitad.
El Partido de la Independencia de Reino Unido, UKIP, que ganó las más recientes elecciones europeas y recibió casi 13% de los votos en las pasadas elecciones generales británicas, siempre ha abogado por salirse de la UE.
Pero la figura más prominente es rechazar la afiliación al bloque es el conservador alcalde de Londres, Boris Johnson. Johnson declaró que su decisión de hacer campaña para salir de la UE le ha causado mucha angustia por su estrecha relación con el primer ministro.
Aun así, no quedó convencido con que las reformas logradas por Cameron le devolverían a Reino Unido la soberanía que dice que se ha perdido.


El líder de UKIP, Nigel Farage, es uno de los más vociferantes opositores a que Reino Unido permanezca en la UE.
Un buen número de parlamentarios conservadores, incluyendo miembros del gabinete de Cameron, también quieren salir y tienen permiso de hacer campaña independiente para influir en el referendo.


También se han formado varios grupos que hace proselitismo por el retiro de la unión.
Los dos principales son: Vote Leave (Vota Salir), un movimiento liderado por el ex ministro de finanzas Nigel Lawson y es multipartidista.
El otro es Leave.EU, fundado por Arron Banks, un importante donante a UKIP, que está apoyado por otros empresarios y euroescépticos.
Conservadores opositoresImage copyrightREUTERS
Image caption
Varios miembros del gabinete de Cameron harán campaña para abandonar la UE.
¿Por qué se quieren ir de Europa?
Crecimiento - Sostienen que Reino Unido está siendo frenado por la Unión Europea, con la imposición de muchas reglas a los negocios y el cobro de miles de millones al año en tarifas de membrecía a cambio de poco retorno.
Reducción de inmigración - También quieren que el país recupere el control absoluto de sus fronteras y reducir el número de migrantes que llegan a trabajar.
Imposición de visas - Se oponen a uno de los más importantes principios de la UE que es la llamada "libertad de movimiento", por lo que no se necesita una visa para vivir en otro país miembro.
Más independencia - También rechaza la idea de una "unión más estrecha" y cualquier intento de convertir el bloque en unos "Estados Unidos de Europa".
Refugiados en CalaisImage copyrightAFP
Image caption
El movimiento para abandonar la Unión Europea busca restringir el flujo de inmigrantes a Gran Bretaña.
¿Quiénes abogan por quedarse en Europa?
El primer ministro Cameron ya expresó su intención de recomendar quedarse dentro de la UE, ahora que ha logrado sus acuerdos.
Declaró que hará campaña con su "corazón y alma" y es probable que participe en debates televisados al respecto.
El Partido Laborista, el Partido Nacional Escocés, los Liberales Demócratas y Plaid Cymru (Partido Nacional de Gales) también están a favor de la permanencia, aunque una minoría de sus miembros puedan manifestar lo contrario.
El laborista y ex ministro del Interior Alan Johnson estará liderando la campaña de su partido para permanecer dentro de la UE, sin embargo, dijo que no compartirá una plataforma con David Cameron.
Londres en construcciónImage copyrightREUTERS
Image caption
Los que apoyan la afiliación a la UE dicen que es importante tener más mano de obra inmigrante que garantice el crecimiento económico.
¿Por qué quieren permanecer dentro de la UE?
Fortaleza - Creen que Reino Unido recibirá un gran impulso de su afiliación con la UE.
Economía - Sostienen que el comercio con otros países del bloque es más fácil y ese gran mercado beneficiará la economía británica.
Fuerza laboral - Arguyen que el flujo de inmigrantes, la mayoría de los cuales son jóvenes y dispuestos a trabajar, es un factor de crecimiento económico que ayuda a pagar por servicios públicos.
Prestigio - También están convencidos de que el estatus internacional de Reino Unido se verá negativamente afectado si abandona la UE.
Seguridad- Sostienen, además, que el país es más seguro formando parte del bloque.
Entonces, ¿le irá mejor a Reino Unido dentro a fuera de la UE?
Eso depende de cómo interpretes los diferentes argumentos y de lo que creas que es importante para una nación.
El abandonar la Unión Europea sería un paso monumental.
Como expresó Cameron, será la mayor decisión que tomará esta generación de británicos.
La historia europea de referendos fallidos
Pero, ¿liberaría al país como dicen los que se quieren ir, o lo condenaría a la ruina económica como advierten los que abogan por quedarse?
Quién se regodea en la victoria o se lamenta de la derrota se sabrá después del referendo del 23 de junio.
Habrá que esperar algún tiempo antes de conocer las verdaderas consecuencias de ese resultado.
http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2016/02/160220_reino_unido_referendo_ue_importancia_decision_wbm

BREXIT STUNS MARKETS, DOW FALLS 600 POINTS: Here's what you need to know

Myles Udland

Jun. 24, 2016, 4:00 PM 26,654 24
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trader floor brexit history REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Friday was a historic day in markets after the UK's vote to leave the EU shocked global markets and sent risk assets the world over into a tailspin.

Looking just at US markets, overnight futures cratered as S&P 500 futures went limit-down - meaning that trading was halted - after falling 5%.

After a small bounce following the market open, US stocks slid through the afternoon and closed off the lows but with sharp losses that erased year-to-date gains for the S&P 500 and Dow.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell over 4% on Friday, the biggest one-day drop since 2011.

This was an absolutely manic day in markets that saw massive dislocations across asset classes - a day of market action, we imagine, many won't soon forget.

Scoreboard
Dow: 17,400.8, -610.3, (-3.4%)
S&P 500: 2,037.4, -75.9, (-3.6%)
Nasdaq: 4,708, -202.1, (-4.1%)
FTSE 100: 6.138, -199, (-3.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50: 2,779, -258, (-8.5%)
GBPUSD: $1.367, -8%
10-year Treasury: 1.57%
Gold: $1,322, +4.6%
WTI crude oil: $47.70, -4.8%
Brexit
It happened.

On Thursday, Britons took to the polls in the UK's EU referendum, voting to leave the EU in a vote that went against betting markets and the financial market's conventional wisdom.

Following this result, financial markets were sent into a tailspin with futures diving overnight, the British pound collapsing, and US stocks, after finding some stability early in the day on Friday, tumbling into the close as the Dow and S&P 500 wiped out all of their gains for 2016 in one fell swoop.

Amid this frantic risk-off market action, gold and US Treasurys rallied.

The most jittery part of the business world following this result was the financial sector, with a number of Wall Street banks sending around memos to reassure staff who, in turn, you'd imagine will seek to reassure nervous clients. Portia Crowe has the rundown of bank memos here.

Business Insider's complete, comprehensive coverage of the referendum can be found here »

Clinton, Trump, Obama
As expected, the three biggest players in US politics right now, presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as well as the actual president, Barack Obama, were out saying their piece on the Brexit vote.

Clinton said simply that she respects the choice that the UK's citizens made and added that, "Our first task has to be to make sure that the economic uncertainty created by these events does not hurt working families here in America." This statement wasn't all that different from Obama's statement.

Trump used the decision to take something resembling a victory lap, saying at a press conference at one of his golf courses in Scotland: "It's always the will of the people. Ultimately, that wins out. They've taken back their independence. And that's a very, very important thing."

In the run-up to the Brexit vote, the easy parallel to make from an American point of view is that the Leave camp shared many similarities with the Trump campaign. And here we are.

Much as the conventional wisdom ahead of the Brexit vote held that eventually the Remain camp would prevail, right now the same elite consensus has coalesced around the idea that Clinton will most likely be our next president. Josh Barro argues that there are three reasons to be sanguine about Clinton's chances and just one reason - basically a recession - to worry that he could win.

The polling gap between Clinton and Trump right now is a bit wider than final polling between the Leave and Remain camps showed, but after a shock vote like this, it is worth keeping your guard up ahead of the actual vote.

Or, as Brett LoGiurato wrote on Friday, all bets are now off.
http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-june-24-2016-6

VAROUFAKIS: Brexit means that the 'EU’s disintegration is now running at full speed'

Bob Bryan

Jun. 24, 2016, 12:37 PM 4,281 3
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Yanis Varoufakis
Yanis Varoufakis. AP
Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister and outspoken political activist, believes that the historic vote by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union is a harbinger of the end of the EU.

Writing in a post Friday on the blog OpenDemocracy, Varoufakis said that while he is skeptical of the EU's current structure, the decision by Britain to exit the group was a mistake.

"OUT won because the EU establishment have made it impossible, through their anti-democratic reign (not to mention the asphyxiation of weaker countries like Greece), for the people of Britain to imagine a democratic EU," Varoufakis wrote. "Our radical IN campaign was thus defeated."

Varoufakis had been campaigning for the Remain camp for some time, arguing that change should come from inside the EU rather than leaving it altogether. However, Varoufakis has been critical of the EU's leadership and believes their inability to allow for the "voices of democrats" lead to the decision by British voters.

Varoufakis is best known for his clash with the EU establishment during the Greek credit crisis in 2015, but he has been an advocate for European cooperation. One of his efforts toward that goal was forming the group DiEM25. Its goals are to reform the EU and have a pan-European parliament established by 2025.

"The EU's disintegration is now running at full speed," he wrote. "The DiEM25 campaign of building bridges across Europe, bringing democrats together across borders and political parties, is what Europe needs more than ever to avoid a slide into a xenophobic, deflationary, 1930s-like abyss."

Clearly, the Brexit appears to be a setback for such goals, but Varoufakis said he is not discouraged.

"DiEM25 regrets that the British people chose to leave the EU," he wrote. "But at the same time, DiEM25 welcomes the British people's determination to tackle the diminution of democratic sovereignty caused by the gross de-politicization of political decisions and the consequent democratic deficit in the EU."

Varoufakis also took the chance to criticize what he called the "business-as-usual" ideas of politicians that have contributed to the "loss of EU's legitimacy, integrity and soul."

http://www.businessinsider.com/varoufakis-brexit-means-eus-disintegration-2016-6

Here's Deutsche Bank's best guess at what happens now that the UK has voted

Myles Udland

Jun. 23, 2016, 11:42 PM 27,174 17
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A sign is displayed opposite the M4 near Tata Steel works, on the day of the EU referendum, in Port Talbot in Wales. REUTERS/Rebecca Naden
Right now, the results of the UK's EU referendum are stunning global markets.

With about two-thirds of the vote in, the "Leave" camp has been called the winner by ITV and BBC.

In response to the vote, the British pound had collapsed to a 31-year low against the US dollar, falling below $1.35, while stock futures were collapsing with US futures off more than 3.5% while London's FTSE 100 down almost 9%.

Ahead of the referendum, analysts across Wall Street circulated research on what they thought would happen in the event of either a 'Remain' or 'Leave' vote.

About an hour ago, Torsten Sløk at Deutsche Bank circulated a note that gave an overview of what the firm thought could happen, and in the broadest strokes here's what DB put on the table in the event of a 'Leave' victory:

• We would expect 2017 UK GDP growth to be 0.9%, 1.2pp below the 'remain' scenario. The euro area will be negatively affected (-0.4pp at 1.1% in 2017E). Central banks will likely act to dampen tighter financial conditions. FX liquidity swap lines are in place. At the very least, expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The ECB will communicate its readiness to act, but the most effective policies are likely to face political constraints. We rank the ECB policy options in terms of likelihood.

• 'Leave' opens a period of lasting uncertainty. We think it will be three years before a new UK-EU deal is settled. Politics will determine the longterm cost. A 'leap forward' for European integration is unlikely.

• Sterling trade-weighted may fall 5-6% on the day. Euro trade-weighted should be little changed. Expect the Stoxx 600 to fall 15% (to 295) in the near term. The Bund yield should trade around -10 to -15bp. Periphery assets should be under pressure, especially bank equities. In an orderly sell-off, expect the iTraxx Europe (IG) CDS index to widen 25-100bp.

• The ramifications for the global economy are more limited. 0.2pp off our 2017 global GDP growth estimate to 3.4% still means acceleration next year. There are downside risks. Triggering a European banking crisis is one. A confluence of global shocks (e.g. a China hard landing) is another.

Right now, the only thing we can really react to is the drop in sterling, which seems to be far exceeding what Deutsche Bank thought was possible.

But given that betting markets and a good deal of the conventional wisdom around the vote expected 'Remain' to prevail, we expect there to be more curveballs in the coming hours.
http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-uk-leave-scenario-2016-6

The UK may have just opened 'Pandora's box' in Europe

Elena Holodny

20h 6,445 6
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pandora's box Wikimedia
It's official: Britain has chosen to leave the European Union.

Britons voted Thursday on whether the UK should stay in or leave the 28-nation bloc, with the results counted overnight.

As of 7 a.m. BST (2 a.m. ET) on Friday, the final results showed that 51.9% voted to leave the EU versus 48.1% that voted for Britain to stay within the EU.

Notably, a team of Barclays analysts previously argued that should the Brits choose to leave, the outcome could have serious consequences for the rest of Europe.

Here's what they wrote (emphasis ours):

"A UK exit would set an unwelcome precedent for countries to leave the EU whenever domestic priorities conflict, and would do so at a time when political risks and potential for sovereign-EU confrontation already high. Simultaneously the UK would present Continental opponents of immigration with a politically potent example (and threat) of how to deal with one of the thorniest and most emotionally charged trans-national issues confronting European voters: immigration. [...]

The precedent of a member state leaving the union would open Pandora's box: it could be used as a political argument by populist and extreme parties in several countries, both from the right and the left, to push for an EU exit, including for some euro area countries. [...]

Such events would certainly revive the 'redenomination risk' in the euro area."

More recently, a Morgan Stanley research team led by Elga Bartsch wrote something similar in a note to clients:

"... in our view, the political discontent that is being displayed around the public debate about Brexit is deep-rooted and likely to be echoed elsewhere. The political fragmentation that currently manifests itself in an increasingly populist debate about the UK's EU membership is neither limited to the UK or Europe nor it is likely to dissipate quickly, we think. In our view, the voter backlash against established political parties and international institutions is on the rise."

As an example of the kind of backlash Bartsch describes, Austria nearly elected in May the first far-right European head of state since World War II.

Another example, which many people might have missed given the anxiety surrounding the Brexit vote, is that the Eurosceptic, antiestablishment Five Star Movement was the big winner in Italy's recent municipal elections. Most notably, Five Star's candidate for mayor of Rome, Virginia Raggi, won 67% of the vote, which is more than twice the vote share that the mainstream center-left Democratic Party (PD) candidate got.

And Europe has a bunch of other elections coming up. The Spanish will head to vote again on June 26 after elections in December failed to produce a government. And over the next year, the Netherlands, France, and Germany - three major countries where far-right populist parties are growing in popularity - will have elections, too.

Plus, almost immediately after news outlets called a Brexit, several European politicians made comments about having their own referendums. As Business Insider's Natasha Bertrand outlined:

Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced that Scotland "sees its future as part of the EU," suggesting that Scotland may hold another referendum to decide whether to separate from Britain and re-negotiate an entry into the EU as an independent country.
The Irish political party Sinn Fein, meanwhile, called for a referendum on uniting Northern Ireland with the rest of Ireland as the Brexit results came in.
France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, called the Brexit "victory" - and then changed her Twitter avatar to the Union Jack. Meanwhile, the party's vice president, Florian Philippot, called for a French referendum on leaving the EU.
Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right Dutch Party for Freedom, called on the country to have its own EU referendum in light of Britain's successful Leave campaign.
"Overall, Eurosceptic movements could receive a significant boost from a UK decision to leave the EU," argued Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid in his daily morning note to clients.

He continued:

"This is akin to a cascade of 'prisoner's dilemma' scenarios, with an increasing probability of getting stuck in the non-cooperative solution over multiple games. As such, the risk of disintegration would not materialize as a 'big bang' but rather as a drawn-out process, implying multiple points at which Europe could still put things back on a more positive path. In this scenario, the EU would become increasingly irrelevant for its members, for its neighbourhood and on a global scale."

A few days ahead of the Brexit vote, another Deutsche Bank research team wrote in a note to clients, highlighting the upcoming elections as well as the migrant crisis and Greece:

"Beyond the immediate risk events of the Brexit referendum and Spain election, geopolitical agenda remains in focus. This backdrop makes policy progress very unlikely as domestic politics drive the agenda [leading to] limited room for country-level structural reform [and] little progress toward EU or eurozone reform or integration."

The team added that "policy uncertainty is and will remain high," noting that policy uncertainty in Europe is now around 2011-2012 levels during the height of the eurozone crisis.

And, for what it's worth, Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister and outspoken political activist, had a few things to say about the Brexit vote, too.

"OUT won because the EU establishment have made it impossible, through their anti-democratic reign (not to mention the asphyxiation of weaker countries like Greece), for the people of Britain to imagine a democratic EU," he argued in a post Friday on the blog

http://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-opens-door-for-other-populist-groups-in-europe-2016-6

Los países fundadores de la UE urgen a Londres a iniciar "cuanto antes" el proceso de salida
Francia avisa de que no tolerará que Reino Unido juegue "al gato y al ratón"| Berlín urge a demostrar que la UE está operativa

EFE - Sábado, 25 de Junio de 2016 - Actualizado a las 13:02h

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Cameron anuncia su intención de dimitir en octubre por el "brexit" VER VÍDEO  Reproducir img
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Combo sobre el Brexit.
Los ministros de Exteriores de los seis países fundadores de la Unión Europea (UE) se reunieron hoy en Berlín, a invitación de Alemania, para empezar a pergeñar el futuro del bloque sin el Reino Unido.
GALERÍA
Galería de fotos: El 'Brexit' vence en el referéndum

El 'Brexit' vence en el referéndum
David Cameron con su esposa  Samantha tras su declaración
David Cameron comparece ante los medios en Downing street
David Cameron, reflexivo, durante el discurso que dirigió ayer a los británicos a las puertas del 10 de Downing Street.
Amanece en Londres
Una bandera británica ondea junto al Big Ben de Londres
Boris Johnson, exalcalde de Londres y uno de los máximos partidarios del ‘brexit’, ayer durante su intervención en un acto a favor de la salida del Reino Unido de la UE.
Una bandera británica ondea junto al Big Ben de Londres un día antes del referéndum.
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Encuesta: Si se hiciese un referéndum en el Estado español ¿qué votarías?

BERLÍN. Los seis países fundadores de la Unión Europea -Alemania, Francia, Bélgica, Holanda, Luxemburgo e Italia- exigieron hoy a Reino Unido que ponga en marcha cuando antes el proceso previsto para abandonar de forma ordenada el bloque.

El ministro de Exteriores alemán, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, destacó en Berlín, en una comparecencia conjunta con sus homólogos del resto de países fundadores, que Londres debe activar "cuanto antes" el artículo 50 del Tratado de Lisboa, que es el que prevé el procedimiento para la salida de un país miembro.

Steinmeier subrayó que los gobiernos de los restantes 27 países "no pueden reemplazar decisiones que se tienen que tomar en Londres".

Por su parte, el ministro de Exteriores francés, Jean-Marc Ayrault, instó al primer ministro británico, David Cameron, a asumir su "responsabilidad" por la decisión de convocar el referéndum y recalcó que hay "cierta urgencia" para que se ponga en marcha el proceso de salida.

Por un lado, argumentó el ministro galo, porque también "los otros 27 deben ser respetados", y por otro porque un retraso en la invocación del artículo 50 tendría "consecuencias" de carácter económico y social para todas las partes.

En este mismo sentido, el ministro de Exteriores holandés, Bert Koenders, pidió que "las conversaciones empiecen, con buena voluntad, cuanto antes".

El titular luxemburgués, Jean Asselborn, explicó en este contexto que no sería positivo "cuatro meses o más de incertidumbre" hasta que se pongan en marcha la negociación de la UE con Reino Unido y deseó que nadie ahora en Londres trate de "jugar al gato y al ratón".
http://www.deia.com/2016/06/25/mundo/los-paises-fundadores-urgen-a-londres-a-iniciar-cuanto-antes-el-proceso-de-salida-

Post-Colonial Brexit Blues
Home | Global Europe | Opinions
DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EurActiv.com PLC.
By Joel Schalit | EurActiv.com 24 jun. 2016 (updated: 25 jun. 2016)

British soldier guarding Palestinian prisoners. Arab revolt, 1936.[RS21]
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The anti-colonial rhetoric used by Brexit campaigners was uniquely familiar to surviving subjects of the British empire, and their children. Joel Schalit reflects on the memories it raised for him as an Israeli, and the son of one of the country’s founding families.

Joel Schalit is News Editor of EurActiv.com. This article is excerpted from his forthcoming collection, Everywhere But There: Essays on Europe’s Diversity Crisis. His most recent book is Israel vs. Utopia.

“Two Land Rovers is nothing. Six, and you know there’s a problem.” Headed out of the Israeli Arab village of Umm-Al-Fahm, in the direction of Megiddo Prison, their presence on the busy highway crossing Wadi Ara, was disconcerting. Unlike civilian vehicles, they’d move a little more slowly, compounding the already dense rush hour traffic.

“I would have preferred we didn’t buy these things,” said my father, as he idled his car at a light. “The jeeps we make, at a factory in Nazareth, are perfectly suitable for the purpose. But the army just had to buy British.” Having imported his own fair share of army vehicles himself, on behalf of the IDF’s nascent transport command during the War of Independence, the remains of his efforts still litter the highway in the hills approaching Jerusalem, monuments to the 1948 Arab siege.

“Weren’t those British vehicles?” I asked Elie, recalling that he wasn’t exactly innocent when it came to requisitioning military gear from the Crown. “Yes,” he said, giving me a sharp look. “Some of them were surplus vehicles from North Africa. But we didn’t have any choice during those days. We used what we could find. If you’ll remember, the air force flew Messerschmidts at first, and I hate to say it, but they were better than the British Spitfires we got later.”

It wasn’t the first conversation of the kind we had. But it was typical of the sort of ambivalence my father routinely expressed about the British, as the colonial authority he grew up under, in Mandate Palestine (1917-1948). So ingrained was his dislike for them, it wasn’t all that surprising that he preferred German over British fighters. But it was an especially interesting exception to have made, given the Messerschmidts were flown under Hitler. It was though he felt the British were worse.

Jewish resentment of the British, in the Palestine of my father’s youth, was the monopoly of the extreme right, particularly terrorist groups like the Irgun, who routinely targeted British forces. Working for the Haganah, the underground military wing of the governing Jewish authorities under the British, Elie was more of a soldier for the establishment. He hated the British, and broke their laws as often as he could. But, he always observed the pretence of being allied with them.

The amount of confusion and anxiety this instilled in him was immense. On the one hand, he identified with the British. They represented authority, and culture, in a region of the world wracked by anarchy and violence. On the other hand, they were an obstacle, in the way of independence and freedom from two thousand years of homelessness.It was an especially loaded, albeit typical set of grievances informing the desire for decolonisation in the middle of the twentieth century.

But it would be a long way towards coming to grips with the legacy the British left for Israelis like him. Growing up in the shadow of the Mandate, the crisis of managing this, in persons of my father’s generation, was obvious, starting with the Palestinians. “These Land Rovers were probably coming back from a demolition,” my father said, referring to the IDF’s practice of levelling the homes of families of guerrillas or terrorists. “The British pioneered that,” he often said.

The repetition of the criticism was always significant, as though the identification of the national background of the innovator was explanation in and of itself of the moral transgression. The British are just like that, was the logic. They are colonialists at heart. The longer we behave like them, the longer we imitate them, the lower our chances of ever being welcomed here, meaning Israel, was the implication. That was the idea. Clearly, he had other alternatives in mind.

As the date of the Brexit referendum drew closer, I could not help but think about my father’s British anxiety, as though it were some sort of unconscious way of saying it wouldn’t be so bad if they left. For a country with as complicated a colonial past as the United Kingdom, to express resentment against the EU, as a superstate intent on taking away its sovereignty, feels especially disingenuous from a post-colonial point of view. Even one as complicated as that of Israel.

It is especially difficult to stomach given the aristocratic quarters from which much of the Brexit leadership hails. Witness the privilege of the likes of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, or the ironically German-accented Gisela Stuart. One would be hard pressed to associate them with Yasir Arafat or Frantz Fanon. Not just for ethnic reasons, either. The privilege they radiate makes it hard to take their anti-colonial ‘’Independence Day’ rhetoric seriously. These are precisely the sort of British leaders my father’s colleagues in the Irgun would have considered killing in the 1940s.

In spite of all of this, I was raised in the United Kingdom, as well as in Israel, and also lived there as an adult. There’s a lot I value about my time in the country, in terms of both my education and the neighbourhoods I lived in, like Brixton. But what I miss is London. The city of Sadiq Kahn to be precise, and its wondrous mix of persons from Britain’s former territories, conjuring up a truly post-nation state context, detached from both the UK and its ex-colonial holdings, like Israel.

All of that, I fear, is what is being rebelled against by England’s elites, in the Brexit crisis. That’s what Europe represents to them and why they focus so heavily on immigration. This is why I find myself increasingly ambivalent about the United Kingdom, in ways not too dissimilar to my father, and persons of the post-colonial era like him. While I will never be forced to take up arms like he did, I understand the anger that motivated many Palestinian Jews of his generation to do so. It’s a rage that events like Brexit make it hard to disconnect from.
http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/post-colonial-brexit-blues/

24 JUNE 2016
I want my country back
This was never a referendum on the EU. It was a referendum on the modern world.

BY
LAURIE PENNY





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This morning, I woke up in a country I do not recognise. David Cameron’s big gamble – the future of Britain against his personal political ambitions – has backfired so badly that we’ve blasted clean out of the EU. By the time I’d put the kettle on, the stock markets were in free fall, Scotland was debating a new independence referendum, Sinn Fein was making secession noises, and the prime minister had resigned.

There’s not enough tea in the entire nation to help us Keep Calm and Carry On today. Not on a day when prejudice, propaganda, naked xenophobia and callous fear-mongering have won out over the common sense we British like to pride ourselves on. Not on a day when we’re being congratulated by Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and nobody else. Well done, turkeys. Santa’s on his way.

Nigel Farage, the rich, racist cartoon demagogue, boasts that this victory was won “without a single shot being fired”. Tell that to the grieving family of Jo Cox, the campaigning Labour MP gunned down last week. Farage promised that unless something was done to halt immigration, “violence will be the next step”. It looks like we’ve got a two-for-one deal on that one.

So, here’s the thing. This was never a referendum on the EU. It was a referendum on the modern world, and yesterday the frightened, parochial lizard-brain of Britain voted out, out, out, and today we've all woken up still strapped onto this ghost-train as it hurtles off the tracks. Leave voters are finding they care less about immigration now that their pension pots are under threat. Maybe one of the gurning pundits promising them pride and sovereignty should have mentioned that, but they were too busy lying about the NHS. The curtain has been torn away and now we all have to look at the men behind it. They are not good men.

Anyone feel like they’ve got their country back yet? No? That, after all, was the rallying cry of the Leave campaign – the transatlantic echo of "Make America Great Again". There’s a precedent for what happens when svengalis with aggressively terrible haircuts are allowed to appeal to parochialism and fear in the teeth of a global recession, and it isn’t pretty.

It says something about this campaign that I’m no longer at all worried about risking hyperbole or unoriginality when referencing all that Nazi history they made us study in school. I’m just frightened. I’m frightened that those who wanted "their" country back will get their wish, and it will turn out to be a hostile, inhospitable place for immigrants, ethnic minorities, queer people – everyone and anyone who wasn’t included when Farage proclaimed victory for "ordinary, decent people" this morning in front of a posse formed entirely of angry-looking, whey-faced blokes in suits.

But the thing is – I want my country back too.

I want to wake up tomorrow in a country where people are kind, and tolerant, and decent to one another. A country where people – all people – can feel at least a little bit safe. I want to rub the sleep of neofascist nightmares from my eyes and find myself in a country where we do not respond to the killing of a politician by voting against everything she stood for. A country where we are polite to our neighbors. A country where we have dealt like adults with the embarrassing fact that we once conquered half the world, instead of yearning for a time when our glory was stolen from enslaved people a convenient ocean away and large parts of the map were the gentle pink of blood in the water. I want to go back to a Britain where hope conquers hate; where crabbed, cowed racism and xenophobia don’t win the day; where people feel they have options and choices in life and are less likely to press the big red button to bring the house down on top of us. I want my country back.

That country, of course, is fictional. But it’s no less so than the biscuit-tin, curtain-twitching, tea-on-the-lawn-with-your-white-friends-from-the-Rotary-Club fantasy Britain the other side have been plugging for years, editing out all the ugly parts of the past and photoshopping it into the backdrop for an image smeared indelibly across the back of all our sickened eyeballs this morning, an image of fists raised and boots marching in step. If they’re allowed their fantasy, can I have mine, too?

The Welsh have a word for this feeling. The word is "hiraeth". It means a longing for a home you can never return to, a home which may never have existed at all. The Welsh, incidentally, voted to leave the EU after decades of being ungently screwed by government after conniving Tory government; cackling and tearing the heart out of towns which were once famous for something other than teen suicide. Finally, someone gave them the opportunity to vote for change, for any change at all. When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like David Cameron’s face.

Cameron, who today must be longing for the morning when all he had to deal with was the papers claiming he once had sex with a dead pig in university, sold us all up the river that runs through the chasm of British culture. In a sop to the eurosceptic wing of his own party, he gambled the future of the nation and the political stability of the continent for his own career.

The whole mess started because of a disagreement between rival factions of a right-wing government which is still tearing itself apart and taking the rest of us with it. The fractured Left, unable to unite behind a leader with a popular mandate, was nowhere in this conversation until it was far too late. Cameron promised a referendum in order to pander to the rise of a xenophobic far right and secure his own power: he got his wish, was duly re-elected, and now his career is over, and so are the life chances of millions of young British people. He gets to slink off back to Oxfordshire and live off his family money. Don't weep for Hameron. He'll be fine.

If only the same were true of the rest of us. As it stands, tens of millions are going to suffer. Real people are going to hurt. Real people are going to die. That is David Cameron's fault, more than anyone's. It was right for him to resign, but he will surely be replaced by any one of a rogues' gallery of gurning ideologues who have been decrying “experts” and “elites” to people so desperate for change that they didn’t care that those elites are people their wisecracking white knights literally went to school with.

This morning it looked like Britain had shot itself in the foot. By lunch time, with two political parties imploding and the stock markets crashing, it appears our aim was higher above the knee. This was not just a vote against Europe, but a vote against Westminster and the entirety of mainstream politics. Every political party campaigned hard for a "Remain" vote – but Britain still chose to Leave, even if we’re regretting it this morning.

There are huge areas of post-industrial decline and neglect where people are more furious than Cameron and his ilk could possibly understand, areas where any kind of antiestablishment rabble-rousing sounds like a clarion call. In depressed mountain villages and knackered seaside towns and burned-out former factory heartlands across the country, ordinary people were promised that for once, their vote would matter, that they could give the powers that be a poke in the eye. Westminster may have underestimated how very much it is hated by those to whom mainstream politics have not spoken in generations.

In desperation, the Remain camp begged us to think of the markets. Unfortunately, everyone here hates the markets. Fear-mongering over "the economy" was never going to work when the most deprived areas of the country have already suffered years of savage right-wing austerity in the name of safeguarding "the economy". Those parts of the country clearly felt that things were bad enough already, that they had little enough to lose that they could gamble the rest on the possibility of being lied to. British people are used to being lied to by incompetent spivs in the name of "protecting the economy". Unfortunately, this time the spivs were dead right.

As the tattered remains of the government try to work out what Brexit will actually mean in practice, more damage has already been done to our economy, to our prospects and to the job market than years of open borders ever could have.

In the meantime, the cackling clown-car drivers rolling this catastrophe over the wreckage of civil society are already cheerfully admitting that they lied about their key campaign statements. No, there won’t be £350m more to spend on the NHS, whatever Vote Leave wrote on its battle bus. It turns out that the reason you can’t get a GP appointment isn’t because of immigration, but because the Conservatives have spent six years systematically defunding the health service and cutting public spending to the bone. Brexit will mean more of that, not less.

This was a working-class revolt, but it is not a working-class victory. That’s the tragedy here. The collective howl of rage from depressed, deindustrialised parts of the country bled white and reckless by Thatcher, Blair and Cameron has turned into a triumph for another set of elites. Another banking crisis, another old Etonian in power – that’s what we’ve got to look forward to as Scotland decides when to let go of the rope and the union splinters into jagged shards and we all realise we’re stuck on a rainy rock with Michael Gove, forever.

I wish I could tell you that we’re about to turn this around. I wish I could tell you that we’re about to collectively realise, even at this late hour, the magnitude of our mistake – that we will discover a new capacity for tolerance, a new resilience, a way to recover ourselves and remember our common humanity. I wish I could tell you that the cannibalistic, scattered Left will rally. Today, I don’t want to make any promises. All I see is a lot of racist crowing on the internet and campaigners being told to go back where they came from. I’ve already had people telling me it won’t be long before a new Kristallnacht, and people like me had better go back – where? I was born in London. Perhaps the city can secede. That’ll do wonders for house prices.

This Britain is not my Britain. I want my country back. I want my scrappy, tolerant, forward-thinking, creative country, the country of David Bowie, not Paul Daniels; the country of Sadiq Khan, not Boris Johnson; the country of J K Rowling, not Enid Blyton; the country not of Nigel Farage, but Jo Cox. That country never existed, not on its own, no more than the country the Leave campaign promised to take us to in their tin-foil time machine. Britain, like everywhere else, has always had its cringing, fearful side, its cruel delusions, its racist fringe movements, its demagogues preying on the dispossessed. Those things are part of us as much as beef wellington and bad dentistry. But in happier times, those things do not overwhelm us. We do not let bad actors reading bad lines in bad faith walk us across the stage to the scaffold. We are better than this.

I believe we can still be better than this. I want my country back, and it’s a country I’ve never known, and getting there will take more strength, more kindness, more resilience than this divided nation has mustered in living memory. Meanwhile, I’m putting the kettle on again. Today is a day for mourning, for retweeting sick memes and holding our loved ones close. Tomorrow – well. Tomorrow, we get to work.


Laurie Penny is a contributing editor to the New Statesman. She is the author of five books, most recently Unspeakable
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/i-want-my-country-back

Right-Wing Populism Is Prevailing in Left-Wing Strongholds Around the World

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By NATE COHN
JUNE 27, 2016
Across the postindustrial world, the populist right is excelling in the old bastions of the left.

If there is a lesson for the United States in the decision by British voters to exit the European Union, it is the importance of the emerging split between the beneficiaries of multicultural globalism and the working-class ethno-nationalists who feel left behind. These issues have the potential to overcome longstanding partisan ties, even in the United States.

The power of these issues was evident in the British referendum Thursday evening as the votes were counted. The result in Sunderland — long a Labour stronghold, which voted 62 percent to “Leave” — was the first clear sign of the final outcome.

In the end, many of Labour’s traditional working-class strongholds in old industries across northern England voted for “Brexit.” (The last deep coal mine in the country closed last year in North Yorkshire, in northern England.)

“Remain” did better than the Labour Party normally does in the establishment-friendly, traditionally Conservative and more affluent countryside of southern England, let alone in the Conservative seats of London, but not by enough.

The same story unfolded in the recent Austrian elections. The far right won working-class areas that sided with the Social Democrats a decade earlier. Similar patterns show up in Denmark and Germany, with the center-left doing better in cosmopolitan metropolitan areas and with populists gaining in former leftist strongholds.

The result is familiar to Americans: an electorate split between the well-educated, diverse and cosmopolitan metropolitan areas connected to the global economy and the older, less educated, former industrial regions that haven’t benefited from globalization.

In some sense, the United States is ahead of this trend. The so-called culture wars, which have pitted the religious right against secularism, had no equivalent in relatively secular Europe. The fights over gay marriage, guns, climate change, abortion and — before that — civil rights had already pushed many traditionally Democratic but conservative strongholds in the South and Appalachia toward the Republicans. Many affluent suburbs along the coasts have been voting Democratic.

But in much the same way that immigration and nationalism proved to be more persuasive to the more secular European working class, European-style populism — now embodied by Donald Trump — could do additional damage to the Democrats in many parts of the United States.

The parallel is striking. The European center-left, like Democrats in the United States, have embraced lower taxes, free trade and immigration over the last few decades.


A mural of Donald Trump and the former London mayor Boris Johnson, a “Brexit” supporter, last month in Bristol, England. It echoes an iconic image of the Communist leaders Erich Honecker and Leonid Brezhnev.
NEIL MUNNS / EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
There are many relatively secular, traditionally Democratic working-class bastions across the North where the Republicans have made few or no gains in recent decades. Scranton, Pa.; Youngstown, Ohio; and the Iron Range counties in Wisconsin all gave more than 60 percent of the vote to President Obama in 2012. There are areas like this across the Northern United States — from Aberdeen, Wash., and Butte, Mont., to the coasts of Rhode Island and Maine — where the Republicans have made marginal or no gains, in no small part because cultural appeals fell flat where there were not many evangelical Christians.

These were also among the places where Mr. Trump fared best in the primaries.

He won 70 percent in Scranton and nearly 80 percent in nearby Wilkes-Barre. He carried more than 50 percent of the vote in Youngstown, even though his opponent — John Kasich — was the state’s governor.

He won more than 50 percent in all of the Iron Range counties in Wisconsin, even though he lost badly statewide.

His best state was Rhode Island: the state where Democrats did best among white working-class voters for much of the 20th century.

Voter-file-based polling data also indicates that Mr. Trump fared best among those self-identified Republicans who nonetheless remain registered as Democrats or who have a history of voting in Democratic primaries.

The Brexit vote shouldn’t be interpreted as a sign that Mr. Trump will win — as my colleagues Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns have pointed out. The United States is far more diverse than Britain, and Mr. Trump might underperform the potential of his message, given his penchant to offend and his lack of experience in running for elected office.

But there is no guarantee that white working-class voters who stuck with the Democrats through the culture wars will stay with them if elections are waged on issues like trade and immigration.

It’s a problem for Democrats. They are a lot more dependent on the Northern white working class than the prevailing narrative of recent electoral contests tends to acknowledge. Northern working-class whites represent a larger share of the electorate than generally believed, and Democrats have been winning a larger share of them than has been typically understood.

Already, polls show that Mr. Trump is winning white voters without a college degree by more than Mitt Romney did four years ago. Over all, he’s faring about as well among white registered voters as Mr. Romney did, despite Mr. Trump’s weakness with well-educated white voters.

It may not be enough for Mr. Trump. Indeed, he trails in the same polls that show him overperforming among white voters. But the Brexit vote, and European electoral trends more generally, is a reminder that there’s a lot of room for Democrats to fall among white working-class voters.

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