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A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por ivan_077 el Febrero 3rd 2015, 19:59


A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict
The Washington Free Beacon

Bill Gertz, The Washington Free Beacon

Feb. 2, 2015, 4:53 PM


Chinese Navy PLA Navy ship Zheng HeSoe Than WIN/AFP/Getty ImagesCrew members of the Chinese Navy stand guard on the deck of Chinese PLA Navy ship Zheng He as it docks at the Myanmar International Terminal Thilawa (MITT) port on the outskirts of Yangon on May 23, 2014.
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HONOLULU—China’s ruling Communist Party is “rejuvenating” and preparing for a military conflict in Asia, the outgoing intelligence chief of the Navy’s Pacific Fleet is warning.

“The strategic trend lines indicate the Communist Party of China is not only ‘rejuvenating’ itself for internal stability purposes, but has been and continues to prepare to use military force,” Navy Capt. James E. Fanell said on Saturday during his retirement speech Saturday at Pearl Harbor.

Speaking on a pier across the harbor from the battleship USS Missouri, where Japan’s surrender was signed ending World War II, and near the memorial over the submerged wreckage of the USS Arizona, sunk in 1941 during the Japanese attack, Fanell said he believes Beijing prefers not to use its growing military force for achieving regional dominance.

“But let’s not deceive ourselves. The evidence I’ve been chewing on over the past 15 years is overwhelming,” he said. “Beijing has prepared for military action and [Chinese] President Xi Jinping’s ‘China Dream’ has a defined timeline to reach this ‘rejuvenated’ end state.”

On the Obama administration’s policy of shifting forces to the Pacific, called the “rebalance,” Fanell said the program is a good first step to counter the challenge of China.

“But it must be backed up with a real, tangible deterrent force and we must stand up to Beijing’s propaganda and bullying campaign, especially those that come at the expense of our allies and partners,” he said.

The rebalance includes the shift of some troops, naval, and air forces to the region but it has been limited as a result of sharp defense cuts under the Obama administration and continuing U.S. military commitments in the Middle East.

The career intelligence captain called on his fellow intelligence officials to present honest assessments of the danger posed by China’s growing military power, an indirect criticism of what officials have said have been numerous U.S. intelligence failures in assessing China’s military build up over the past three decades.

“The challenge, as I have seen it, is for intelligence professionals to make the case, to tell the truth, and to convince national decision and policy makers to realize that China’s rise, if left unchecked or undeterred, will necessarily disrupt the peace and stability of our friends, partners, and allies,” he said.

“We should not have to wait for an actual shooting war to start before we acknowledge there is a problem and before we start taking serious action,” Fanell said.

The Communist Party of China has plans that “stand in direct contrast to espoused US national security objectives of freedom of navigation and free access to markets for all of Asia,” he added.

In particular, the Chinese navy, Fanell said, is taking steps to achieve strategic objectives that include the restoration of what Beijing says is “sovereign maritime territory,” specifically thousands of square miles of water inside the so-called first island chain — a string of western Pacific islands near China’s coasts stretching from Northeast Asia through the South China Sea.

Chinese Coast Guard South China SeaReuters TVA Chinese Coast Guard ship patrols the South China Sea about 130 miles off the coast of Vietnam.

Fanell is retiring after more than 28 years in the Navy. He told more than 100 guests attending the Pearl Harbor ceremony, including several admirals, that he was inspired to join the sea service in 1986 by President Ronald Reagan.

“It was the words, the images, and his vision for a strong America, one that would combat the global spread of communism, that motivated me to sign on the dotted line,” Fanell said of Reagan.

“This ‘calling’ is what drew me into the United States Navy and kept me going.”

Fanell has held the storied post of US Navy Pacific Fleet “N2,” the chief of fleet intelligence, since 2011. That post was held by some of the most senior US intelligence officials.

One famous Pacific Fleet N2 was Edwin Layton, who from 1940 to 1945 pioneered the use of secret electronic communications intelligence in war planning.

Other Pacfleet N2s include former Adm. Bobby Ray Inman, a former director of the National Security Agency; and Adm. Mike McConnell, another former NSA director; and former Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lowell Jacoby, a former admiral.

“There is no finer intelligence officer in the United States Navy than Jim Fanell,” retired Rear Adm. James. D. Kelly said in remarks during the ceremony. Kelly was a former commander of the aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Kitty Hawk and is currently a dean at the Naval War College.

Fanell said writing the retirement speech was “one of the hardest events of my career.”

“For the past 90 days I have truly struggled to come up with the right words to wrap up 28 and a half years of service in the US Navy,” he said.

In often emotional farewell remarks, Fanell noted that an early intelligence innovator, World War II Navy cryptanalyst Joseph Rochefort pushed the envelope of using communications intercepts to target the Japanese fleet.

“Joe Rochefort came out of the disaster of 7 December [1941] with a firm resolve to provide the US Pacific Fleet the best assessed location of the Imperial Japanese navy’s fleet,” he said.

“And Joe did this despite knowing that his ‘masters’ in Washington at OP-20-G/Navy Communications did not want Station Hypo to provide this intelligence directly to the Fleet. Joe knew he was bucking the system and it was something he would pay for dearly later on in 1942, but that is another story for another time.”

Rochefort, who died in 1976, helped break Japanese codes that were the key to locating, attacking, and ultimately defeating the Japanese fleet in the Pacific.

But Rochefort was twice denied medals by senior Navy officials who he had angered. In 1986 Reagan awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously.

Fanell’s career was cut short after he made two speeches in San Diego in 2013 and last year bluntly describing the threat posed by China.

In February 2014, Fanell said that Chinese military exercises indicated Beijing was preparing for a “short, sharp war” with Japan.

Tensions between China and Japan remain high over Beijing’s efforts to claim the Senkaku Islands, Japanese islets located between the southern end of Japan and Taiwan.

China is claiming the Senkakus as its territory and last year imposed an air defense identification zone over the East China Sea that covers the uninhabited islands.

Both the United States and Japan announced they would not recognize the Chinese defense zone.

China Special Forces Navy SailorAPA Special Forces officer with China's navy

In 2013, Fanell, during a similar conference in San Diego, warned that China was escalating what he said was the bullying of regional neighbors.

The blunt comments by the captain triggered criticism from pro-China analysts in the US government and academic community.

In November, Fanell was removed from his post and assigned to another position after an anonymous complaint to the Pacific Fleet inspector general triggered an investigation.

An investigative report produced by the U.S. Pacific Command concluded that Fanell on several occasions improperly “discussed classified information in the presence of foreign nationals.”

“The anonymous IG complaint alleges that Capt. Fanell repeatedly discussed classified information in the presence of foreign national staff members, or otherwise allowed foreign national staff members to come into contact with classified information not authorized for release to foreign nationals,” the report, dated Dec. 5., states.

Additionally, the report indicates the issues involving the briefings was initially handled by the Navy’s Pacific Fleet but was taken over by the US Pacific Command inspector general. No reason for the takeover was given.

The commander of the US Pacific Command at the time of the investigation, Adm. Samuel Locklear, is among the most assertive in seeking closer relations with the Chinese military as part of the Pentagon’s policy of trying to build trust with the People’s Liberation Army.

Last week, however, the Pentagon suspended military exchanges with China over a lack of agreement for setting up rules for aerial intercepts of US surveillance aircraft in Asia by Chinese jets, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The PACOM investigative report said numerous officials interviewed by investigators “spoke highly of Capt. Fanell’s dedication and commitment to proper safeguarding of classified material.”

“Capt. Fanell explained that he believes there is a tension between ‘operationalizing’ and “internationalizing’” intelligence information, the report, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act states, noting that the Navy staff in recent years has included the addition of regional allies.

“Capt. Fanell sees these as diametrically opposed to one another and ripe for challenges.”

Additionally, the report said an online news clipping service moderated by Fanell called “Red Star Rising” was criticized by unidentified critics as “a potential security problem,” “unprofessional,” and “inappropriate.”

However, the Naval Criminal Investigative Service said the website “did not pose any security concerns.”

Fanell declined to comment on the investigation.

A Pacific Fleet spokesman said the investigation “had nothing to do” with Fanell’s earlier comments in San Diego.

But other defense officials said they are convinced the investigation of Fanell and his reassignment was an outgrowth of the comments that angered pro-China officials and intelligence analysts within the US government.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-top-us-navy-intelligence-official-is-warning-of-future-conflict-with-china-2015-2

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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por ogmios03 el Febrero 4th 2015, 17:14



Pues es inevitable un conflicto pero su intensidad ya dependerá de ellos. No dudo que parte de la cancelación del tren y lo de dragon Mart sea una maniobra de EEUU para dejar fuera la influencia de este rival al lado de su vecino...

tontos, esto se hubiera hecho el sexenio pasado o antepasado cuando estaba latinoamérica descuidada, ahora están de nuevo los ojos del gigante en sus retoños. Al menos sáquenle provecho, digo.

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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por NavalStuka el Junio 1st 2015, 22:31

Madres, tengo uno o dos años observando las noticias sobre este tema, y todo grita a una politica de expansion china a cuesta de la integridad territorial de otros paises. Ademas de una obvia decision del uso de fuerzas militares en pro de la posicion de beijing en disputas territoriales. En otras palabras, una militarizacion china del Mar sureste chino.

Todo esta huele a una guerra, ke puede estallar en nuestras narices muy pronto. Washington esta volteando sus ojos a asia nuevamente, y con esto biene tension militar que puede resultar en un causus belli.

El conflicto puede ser regional, pero Mexico no debe contar con ese hecho y debemos de empezar un programa de modernizacion immediata para estar listos yegara a pasar lo que sea. Durante la segunda guerra Mexico no tenia velas en ese entierro y algun capitan de submarinos decidio undirnos dos buques
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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Junio 2nd 2015, 11:40

Dos? Nos hundieron siete.

pero bueno, el punto, (y eso se ha discutido en el CESNAV, pero hay muchos aún escepticos,) es que la política de expansión China se ha vuelto muy peligrosa e inevitablemente, (en unos 20-30 años) la amenaza será tremendamente grande, al mismo nivel que tenía la amenaza japonesa en 1942 hacia México, pues somos el debil vientre de EUA.
Asimismo nuestras rutas comerciales con Filipinas, que se proyecta para ser nuestro principal socio marítimo comercial del Pacífico por cuestiones históricas. La idea es mandar todo a Filipinas y de ahi ellos se encargarían de distribuírlo al resto del Pacífico. Esa nación gravita en nuestra esfera de intereses. Esta amenaza es viste con mucha seriedad por nuestros socios de la Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Perú Colombia y proximamente Panamá) Esta aliana pinta para ser un frente defensivo de America vs los chinos.
Bueno esas rutas se verían en riesgo.
Será necesaria una flota antibuque y antisubmarina suficiente para no disuadir, ni defender sino para al menos mantenerlos a raya un tiempo en o que los gringos llegan a producir mas material para defender al continente en caso de un conflicto armado.
Ahora no se percibe claramente como una amenza. pero al ritmo de crecimiento armamentistico de China y el declive económico de EUA que ya se esta dando (China es la principal acreedora de la deuda externa de EUA) la situación será mucho más complicada.

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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por NavalStuka el Junio 2nd 2015, 21:59

El escepticismo a ambos lado de la fronteras pinta a un desastra estratigico si ciega a ambos paises ante las amenazas de china en el pacifico.
Yo todavia no entiendo por que los politicos de Mexico no se dan cuenta que nuestra cercania a los Estados Unidos nos pone bajo riesgo si alguien pretende agreder al coloso del norte. Y que debemos de prepararnos, aun que los mismos gueros no les guste. Admitiblemente nuestra debilidad es en gran parte gracias a dos puntos, los politicos creen que los gueros nos ayudaran en caso de una guerra y que los gueros no quieren que mexico se arme militarmente.

El hecho es que si China se vuelta como una potencia hostil, Mexico se vera envuelto en ese pleito y Mexico se veria debastada si se vuelve en zona de combate. La mejor manera de prevenirlo? No mostrarnos como un vientro debil.

En lo de filipinas? si Mexico y la AP pretenden protejer sus intereses en el Area ya es hora de empezar a pensar en una politica extranjera mas activa. Una alianza de defensa con filipinas, mostrar a china que si agreden a Filipinas ellos no estan solos o indefensos. Por tan mal que este nuestra a fuerza naval, estamos mucho mejor que ellos. Los pobres no pueden interceptar a los chinos cuando se meten en sus aguas, pero un escuadron de patrullas oceanicas cambiaria eso rapido.
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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por ogmios03 el Junio 3rd 2015, 13:11



EEUU no tiene ningun declive económico, lo tenía hasta hace poco pero realmente volverá a tener una era de crecimiento grande del 2020 en adelante. así que habrá bastante competencia entre ellos. Habrá que ver que hace Rusia en el futuro.


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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Junio 3rd 2015, 22:35

Habrá que ver lo que sucede con el declive chino de poblacion (ya saben eso de 33 hombres por cada mujer, etc)
Y creo que eso mas que debilitarlos los va a fortalecer. Pero quien sabe. Lo que si se es que ese será un factor clave para ver que sucede.

Por mientras ya empezamos a ver como empresas occidentales se salen de China para regresar a EUA (o a México). Eso debería de acelerarse.

Por otra parte EUA ya estam empezando a trabajar con Japón, Corea, Filipinas, Vietnam, Tailandia, Indonesia, Australia, Nueva Zelanda, etc y como ejemplo este ejercicio reciente de Seabasing donde participó tambien México y Colombia (Ambos países del Pacífico)

El problema más grande sería si construyen los chinos el Canal de Nicaragua. Ahi si ya nos dieron en la madre a la seguridad hemisferica. Partirían las capacidades de defensa de América en dos. Y de paso impedirían a los gringos mover efectivamente fuerzas desde el Canal de Panamá

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Re: A top US Navy intelligence official is warning of future China conflict

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Junio 3rd 2015, 22:41

Urge sobremanera que empezemos a mandar oficiales (jovenes) tanto del Ejército, pero sobre todo de la Marina a que se capaciten con los chinos y entender su doctrina, su idiosincracia, su forma de operar. Necesitamos entender la mentalidad militar y naval china. Necesiamos ver sus aspiraciones y sus formas de jugar para poder desarrollar una forma de contragolpearlos.

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