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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Mexico Security Memo: Guns, Money and Los Zetas Incursions in Sinaloa Territory

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Enero 26th 2012, 02:38

Mexico Security Memo: Guns, Money and Los Zetas Incursions in Sinaloa Territory
January 25, 2012 | 1536 GMT
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An Accidental Benefactor

As Mexico's two predominant criminal cartels, the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas, continue their violent competition for control over the country's drug trade, the Mexican government is compelled to contain that violence as well as it can. Some cartels benefit from the resultant government intervention, especially when the intervention is directed at one of their rivals.

Such is the case in western Mexico, where several incidents took place over the weekend that seem to advantage Los Zetas as they encroach on Sinaloa territory. On Jan. 18, Federal Police arrested Eduardo "El Lalo" Avila Ojeda, a weapons distributor for the Sinaloa Federation, in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. The arrest follows the Dec. 30 capture of Ramiro "El Ramy" Rendon, another alleged Sinaloa distributor, in Culiacan.

On Jan. 20, Luis Alberto "El Arqui" Cabrera Sarabia, a lieutenant of Sinaloa leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, was killed by Mexican soldiers in Canatlan, Durango state, during an operation that resulted in the arrest of at least 10 other members. Cabrera reportedly was head of the cartel's operations for all of Durango state and parts of Chihuahua state.

Then on Jan. 22, the Mexican army detained Sinaloa money launderer Jose Sanchez Villalobos in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. Sanchez is also wanted by the U.S. government for cocaine trafficking. The arrest was the result of an investigation stemming from evidence gathered from the November 2011 seizure of $15.3 million in Tijuana, Baja California state. Finally, on Jan. 26 authorities arrested Felipe Cabrera Sarabia, a head Sinaloa security operator.

As we noted in our 2012 annual cartel report, Los Zetas have a presence in more territories than the Sinaloa Federation, which operates in fewer states now than it did in 2005. It therefore comes as no surprise that the two cartel hegemons are coming into conflict with each other over a growing number of territories. In fact, the three states in which the above incidents took place -- Durango, Jalisco and Sinaloa -- are traditional areas of Sinaloa control in which Los Zetas are trying to establish a presence.

The military operations come at an inopportune time for the Sinaloa Federation, given the recent Zetas incursions into its territory. While the moves may not have been anything more than typical counter-cartel operations, Sinaloa financial operations and weapons distribution -- money and guns are key elements of a criminal organization's infrastructure -- were targeted. A decline in these assets could hamper Sinaloa's ability to combat the government forces (Sinaloa does not deliberately target government forces, but such engagements often are unavoidable in the cartel war). More important, a decline in these assets may hurt Sinaloa's efforts to counter Los Zetas as they continue their incursions into Sinaloa territory.
Municipal Police Dead in Ciudad Juarez

Over the past week, three municipal police officers were killed in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. On Jan. 19, several municipal police officers responded to a motorcycle accident, during which they were ambushed by unidentified gunmen. One officer was killed and several others wounded. Then on Jan. 21, gunmen in a vehicle opened fire on a police supervisor and another officer traveling in the supervisor's personal vehicle. The supervisor was taken to the hospital, where he died from injuries sustained in the incident. His passenger is in serious condition.

Even though drug-related homicides claimed fewer lives in Juarez last year than the previous year -- 1,700 people died in 2011, down from around 3,000 in 2010 -- the city is still Mexico's deadliest. Cartel violence rarely discriminates among victims, but municipal police seem to be the most vulnerable of all Mexican authorities. This likely is because they are on the front lines of the conflict and are susceptible to collusion with cartels -- and reprisals from rival cartels for that collusion.

That the victims in Juarez were targeted deliberately because of their station serves as a reminder that the authorities, especially municipal police, must still contend with cartel-related violence, even if levels of violence are lower than they once were.

Jan. 17

A municipal police officer was executed in Tepic, Nayarit state, by gunmen in the streets in the early morning. The attackers fled before authorities arrived at the scene.
A gunman killed four individuals in a residence in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. According to neighbors, one of the individuals killed had been released from prison six months prior to the incident.
The Mexican navy captured Ariel "El Cepillin" Pineda Jimenez, a reported leader of the Knights Templar, in Xochimilco, Mexico City. According to Mexican authorities, Pineda was in charge of Guanajuato state.

Jan. 18

A bronze statue of a rooster was left at a street corner in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state, in memory of deceased Gulf cartel leader Samuel "El Metro 3" Flores Borrego.
The Mexican army announced that they arrested Jose Sanchez Villalobos, a chief financial operator for the Sinaloa Federation in Baja California and Jalisco states, in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. The arrest follows an investigation stemming from a seizure of $15.35 million in Tijuana in November 2011.
Mexican soldiers killed three gunmen in Susupuato, Mexico state, during a gunfight. Several other gunmen escaped.

Jan. 19

One police officer was killed and three wounded in an ambush by unidentified gunmen. The police were responding to a call about a motorcycle accident.

Jan. 20

Unidentified gunmen shot and killed three individuals along a highway in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. Authorities found some 100 bullet casings among the victims.

Jan. 21

Mexican authorities discovered the dismembered body of a man placed in three black bags inside a vehicle near the Federal Palace in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Gunmen killed Fabian Ramirez, a municipal police commander in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. Ramirez was en route to work when the gunmen ambushed him.

Jan. 22

The body of a young man bearing signs of torture was found in a public display in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. A narcomanta, signed "Z," threatened similar fates to those who rob from the innocent.

Jan. 23

Five police died during a confrontation with gunmen in Ixtapaluca, Mexico state. The incident began when police arrested an individual for carrying an assault rifle issued to the military. Gunmen in two vehicles opened fire after they intercepted the police en route to police headquarters. The individual who had been arrested escaped.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/mexico-security-memo-guns-money-and-los-zetas-incursions-sinaloa-territory

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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Mexico Security Memo: Potential Weakening of a Sinaloa Ally

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Marzo 19th 2012, 16:47

Mexico Security Memo: Potential Weakening of a Sinaloa Ally
March 14, 2012 | 1433 GMT

CJNG Leader Arrested

The Mexican army detained Erick "El 85" Valencia Salazar, the leader of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), on March 9 in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. Two of Valencia's lieutenants were arrested with him. Soon after Valencia's capture, gunmen hijacked several vehicles, including buses and trucks, and established roadblocks in at least 16 different points in Guadalajara. A subsequent firefight between gunmen and security forces lasted several hours, ending in the arrest of 16 additional members of CJNG.

The loss of its leader will likely affect CJNG's expanding operations, conducted on behalf of the Sinaloa Federation, against Los Zetas in other states. Because Sinaloa uses CJNG against Los Zetas aggression, Sinaloa probably will need to adjust -- either through the use of its own members or those of allied groups -- in Guadalajara. But Valencia's arrest will also present Sinaloa with an opportunity to reassert control over CJNG, which has been steadily increasing in strength.

According to authorities, Valencia succeeded Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel, the former leader of the Sinaloa Federation's faction in Guadalajara, after Coronel's death in July 2010. Coronel's faction split apart after this succession, leaving Valencia to consolidate power over his own separate group, CJNG. Under Valencia's leadership, CJNG oversaw drug trafficking through Jalisco state and expanded its operations into several other states.

In July 2011, CJNG announced in a video that it had formed groups, labeled "Mata Zetas," (Zetas Killers), focused on eliminating members of Los Zetas. Two months after the video's release, the bodies of 35 suspected Los Zetas members were dumped along a street in Boca del Rio, Veracruz state. According to authorities, Valencia was the mastermind of this operation. While CJNG appeared to have declared war against all of Mexico's cartels in early 2011, at some point that year CJNG aligned with the Sinaloa Federation, as evidenced by CJNG's incursion into Guerrero and the subsequent emergence of narcomantas signed "CJNG at the service of Chapo," a reference to Sinaloa leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman.

The expansion of CJNG operations into other Mexican states was in part a result of CJNG agreeing to serve as an assault force for the Sinaloa Federation. CJNG acts as a counter to Los Zetas in states such as Veracruz, Guerrero, Morelos, Michoacan and CJNG's home turf of Jalisco. In all of the regions where CJNG operates it is engaged in turf wars (including with the far larger Los Zetas organization), placing significant pressure on CJNG.

Jalisco state, and especially the city of Guadalajara, is an important transportation hub for drug smuggling. As such, the state has seen significant violence carried out by several organized criminal groups, such as La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, CJNG, Los Zetas, La Resistencia and the Sinaloa Federation. CJNG has helped Sinaloa to prevent its rivals in Los Zetas from establishing a stronger presence in the state -- a situation that would adversely affect Sinaloa's smuggling operations. Should the arrest of Valencia degrade CJNG's ability to counter Los Zetas, Sinaloa would likely be compelled to respond in Guadalajara either through use of its own members or aligned organizations such as La Barredora or Gente Nueva.

While the consequences of Valencia's arrest are uncertain, it is important to consider not only how the arrest will affect CJNG and Sinaloa's operations against their rivals, but also how it will affect CJNG's relationship with Sinaloa. Sinaloa has moved its allied organizations around and forced some of them to operate in the same regions in order to mitigate the risk that one group could grow too large to control. Since CJNG is an important asset for the Sinaloa Federation, it is possible that Sinaloa would use Valencia's arrest to bring CJNG further into its fold.

The Sinaloa Federation has a vested interest in fighting Los Zetas in areas where CJNG activity is more commonly seen, such as in Veracruz state; Guadalajara, Jalisco state; or Guerrero state. Regardless of the consequences of Valencia's capture, Sinaloa will continue to exert force on its rivals' territories. Should CJNG suffer significantly in operations against Los Zetas, Sinaloa will continue to confront Los Zetas with any additional forces needed. Consequently, the arrest of Valencia alone is unlikely to change the level of violence in areas where CJNG operates.
March 6

Gunmen shot and killed a man sitting in a car before lighting the car on fire in northwest Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
Federal police discovered a dismembered body in several bags in the back of a pickup truck in Acapulco, Guerrero state. A narcomanta left with the body attributed the killing to CJNG "at the service of El Chapo Guzman." The banner said, "This is going to happen to those who are against the boss."
Authorities discovered 15 bodies in three unmarked graves in Ciudad Benito Juarez, Nuevo Leon state. Mexican authorities have discovered a total of 113 bodies in unmarked graves since June 2010.
Mexican police engaged gunmen in a firefight on Highway 57 in Piedra Negras, Coahuila state. After the firefight, blockades were reported throughout the city, including on the highway connecting Piedra Negras to Ciudad Acuna, Coahuila state. One police officer was killed, nine individuals were injured and two gunmen were arrested.
Three decapitated bodies were left in black bags on a street in Veracruz, Veracruz state. A narcomanta signed by CJNG Mata Zetas was left with the bodies. The message stated that individuals who entered CJNG's port territory would suffer a similar fate.
Federal police arrested Manuel "El Pony" Montano Silvestre, a financial operator for La Barredora, in Guerrero state. The arrest was the result of a follow-up investigation after the Feb. 14 arrest of Montano Silvestre's boss. Montano was responsible for storing and distributing drugs, as well as collecting fees and handling financial transactions, for La Barredora.
The Mexican military seized 35 kilograms (77 pounds) of marijuana, an undisclosed amount of cocaine, several rifles, a grenade launcher and a rocket launcher at a cartel hideout in La Antigua, Veracruz state.

March 7

Gunmen shot and killed a woman in her car in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. The woman had just dropped her daughter off at school when gunmen stepped in front of her vehicle and opened fire into the windshield.
A criminal organization ambushed another group in Tlalchapa, Guerrero state, leaving four gunmen and one bystander dead and five gunmen injured.
Mexican authorities arrested two drug traffickers linked to Cartel del Norte del Valle, a Colombian organized crime group, in Mexico state. The individuals coordinated the shipment of cocaine and heroin to New York from Mexico via air transport. The arrests were the result of an investigation following the capture of a La Familia Michoacana plaza boss and seizure of two drug labs March 4 in Morelos state.
Mexican authorities seized a collection of firearms, ammunition and drugs from a Social Rehabilitation Center (CERESO) prison in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. Authorities seized a total of 22 rifles, 23 handguns, 22 homemade shotguns, 51 magazines, 5,123 rounds of ammunition, 568 knives, 82 cellphones, cocaine, heroin and marijuana. The contraband was discovered in concealed compartments in the prison walls.
A firefight between police and gunmen near a municipal police station in Encarnacion de Diaz, Jalisco state, left one police officer and two bystanders injured.

March 8

Individuals placed several narcomantas along multiple vehicle and pedestrian bridges in Morelia, Michoacan state. The banners, signed "Knights Templar Michoacan Guard," stated that the group was not looking for war and was only defending the land.
A shootout between gunmen and the Mexican military left 10 individuals dead in Miguel Aleman, Tamaulipas state.
Federal police reported the arrest of 22 members of the Knights Templar in a spa resort in Morelia, Michoacan state. The individuals were detained after a police patrol spotted armed men near the spa.
Gunmen kidnapped the municipal clerk of Teloloapan, Guerrero state, from his home in Oxtotitlan, Guerrero state. The gunmen demanded 3.5 million pesos ($280,000) for his release.
In a failed assassination attempt, gunmen attacked the public security secretary in Apodaca, Nuevo Leon state, on the Apodaca-Juarez Highway. While the gunmen attempted to flee, several roadblocks were established using large vehicles, some of which were set on fire.
The dismembered bodies of four students were found in bags in Cuernavaca, Morelos state, along with a message signed "El Chuky." Two of the victims were 17 years old, one was 16 years old and the fourth was 13 years old.

March 9

Gunmen killed four men sitting at a table in a bar near the municipal police station in Zumpango del Rio, Guerrero state.
Authorities discovered a human head in a cooler in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state. A narcomanta was also left inside the cooler, though authorities did not reveal the contents of the message.
Gunmen killed a police commander in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state, after he dropped his daughter off at school. The gunmen, driving a stolen vehicle, opened fire on the police commander, who managed to escape and take refuge in a nearby police station. He later died in the hospital.

March 10

A grenade explosion injured two individuals in Saltillo, Coahuila state. The grenade exploded near a hospital during a firefight between state police and gunmen.
Three bodies were hung from a bridge in Vista Hermosa, Michoacan state, near the Michoacan-Jalisco border. Authorities did not say if a narcomanta was left with the bodies.
Authorities discovered eight decapitated bodies along with a narcomanta in Valle Hermoso, Tamaulipas state. The message, signed by the Gulf cartel, indicated that the dead individuals were Los Zetas members.
Authorities discovered a body in an unmarked grave in Zapopan, Jalisco state. The statements of 16 CJNG members arrested earlier that day led to the discovery.
Mexican authorities discovered a decapitated body and a narcomanta signed "Knights Templar, Michoacan Guard" in Apatzingan, Michoacan state. The message stated that a similar fate would befall those who did not respect the "code."

March 11

Mexican soldiers captured 10 Knights Templar members who were holding a meeting in Tzurumutaro, Michoacan state. The Knights Templar members operated in Patzcuaro, Michoacan state, and were meeting with their plaza boss when the military surprised them. The plaza boss was also detained.
Two separate firefights between police and gunmen in Saltillo, Coahuila state, left two gunmen dead and four other individuals wounded.
Four gunmen in a vehicle shot at a police patrol in San Nicolas de los Garza, Nuevo Leon state, injuring one police officer.
In addition to operations on March 10, Mexican authorities detained 35 individuals connected to the murder of a police commander in Apodaca, Nuevo Leon state. The individuals operated as halcones, or scouts, during the murder. According to authorities, two fugitives from the Apodaca CERESO prison planned the murder.

March 12

Four CJNG members were arrested in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, as a result of the investigation into the March 9 firefight between authorities and CJNG.
Gunmen in a truck shot and killed a police commander in Saltillo, Coahuila state.
Three gunmen killed five individuals at a beauty salon in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state. Two gunmen entered the salon and killed a barber and two customers who were waiting for a haircut. The third gunman killed two individuals as they fled the salon.
An organized crime group hung at least three narcomantas from bridges in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. The banners were critical of the Chihuahua state governor.
Mexican authorities discovered the bodies of two executed individuals along a dirt road in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/mexico-security-memo-potential-weakening-sinaloa-ally

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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Mexico Security Memo: Rise in Meth and Heroin Production

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Marzo 22nd 2012, 00:41

Mexico Security Memo: Rise in Meth and Heroin Production
March 21, 2012 | 1212 GMT

Opium Bust in Guerrero State

The Mexican Department of Defense announced March 15 that soldiers seized 3.6 metric tons (nearly 8,000 pounds) of a dark liquid containing opium paste Feb. 1 in Coyuca de Catalan, Guerrero state. The seizure is a record for Mexican opium and heroin interdictions -- the next biggest seizure was 245 kilograms of opium gum in January 2011 in the same state. This seizure of opium and the recent record-breaking seizures of methamphetamine indicate a dramatic rise in meth and heroin production in Mexico to supplement cartel income.

Opium gum is made by extracting the fluid from poppy pods that can grow in the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains along Mexico's Pacific coast. Making black tar heroin can be as easy as soaking the opium gum in acetic acid. Judging by the fact that authorities discovered the opium paste in a liquid (likely acetic acid), it seems they found a lab where the opium gum was being converted to black tar heroin.

While the announcement was made March 15, the seizure actually took place more than a month ago, just a few days before authorities seized 15 tons of meth -- the largest meth seizure in the world -- along with the meth's requisite lab equipment. At the time, Stratfor noted that such large seizures signified the cartels' industrializing their meth production, and in turn diversifying their sources of revenue beyond cocaine and marijuana smuggling. The Feb. 1 opium seizure signifies a similar increase in black tar heroin production.

It is hard to judge the exact value of the Feb. 1 opium seizure due to the weight of the liquid in the opium paste, but given the right circumstances this batch could have a street value in the tens of millions of dollars in the United States -- not as large as the methamphetamine bust, but still record-breaking in its own right. Such seizures provide further evidence of Mexico's increasing share in the heroin market.
Los Zetas in Guadalajara

The body of an executed man was hung March 17 from a bridge in Zapopan, a suburb of Guadalajara, Jalisco state, along with a message addressed to Sinaloa Federation leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera and signed by the well-known Los Zetas leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales. While the authorship of the message is unverified, Los Zetas have maintained a presence in the important transportation hub of Guadalajara as part of the group's ongoing conflict with the Sinaloa Federation. The message appeared a week after the same area experienced multiple firefights between elements of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), an ally of the Sinaloa Federation and rival of Los Zetas, and the Mexican military -- resulting in the March 9 arrest of the CJNG's top leader, Erick "El 85" Valencia Salazar.

Los Zetas have recently used their alignment with La Resistencia, a remnant of the Milenio cartel, to combat the Sinaloa Federation and its smaller aligned groups such as CJNG in Jalisco state, but events such as messages with murder victims or arrests directly linked to Los Zetas are not common in Guadalajara, making the message in Zapopan notable.

CJNG has played a prominent role in countering Los Zetas' incursions into Jalisco state, and Valencia's arrest may hurt CJNG's operations as Los Zetas continue their push. The timing and location of Los Zetas' message, therefore, suggests it was a response to CJNG's losses in the Guadalajara plaza. Regardless of CJNG's ability to protect the Guadalajara plaza, Sinaloa will likely respond to Los Zetas' encroachment -- lessening the chances that security will improve in the region.
March 13

Gunmen opened fire on police headquarters in Montemorelos, Nuevo Leon state. While no casualties were reported as a result, several patrol vehicles parked outside the building were damaged.
The Mexican Army captured Carlos Alejandro "El Fabiruchis" Gutierrez Escobedo, the Los Zetas plaza boss for Nuevo Laredo, in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. The arrest came after a three-hour firefight between gunmen and the Mexican military. Gutierrez Escobedo had replaced the recently killed Gerardo "El Guerra" Guerra Valdez as plaza boss of Nuevo Laredo. This arrest marks the third Los Zetas Nuevo Laredo plaza boss to fall since August 2011 and signals increased pressure on Los Zetas leadership in Nuevo Laredo from federal forces.

March 14

Fifteen people died in several confrontations between gunmen and elements of the Mexican military Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.
Narcomantas signed by CJNG were placed in several locations of Guadalajara, Jalisco state. The message apologized for the violence seen in Guadalajara on March 9 when Mexican security forces engaged in a firefight with CJNG members, resulting in the capture of CJNG’s top leader, Erick Valencia Salazar. The messages also threatened continued operations against Los Zetas.
Gunmen opened fire on municipal police in western Acapulco, Guerrero state, injuring two police officers. The gunmen left a narcomanta signed by the Knights Templar and Los Pelones.
In three separate occasions, gunmen killed two taxi drivers and a transit police officer near Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.

March 15

The Mexican Department of Defense announced that soldiers seized 3,600 liters of dark liquid containing opium paste in Coyuca de Catalan, Guerrero state Feb. 1.

March 16

Gunmen threw grenades into a police academy in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state, injuring two individuals.
Gunmen threw a grenade into The New Excelent bar in northwest Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, killing one individual and wounding seven others.
Narcomantas signed by CJNG appeared in various areas of Leon, Guanajuato state, announcing their presence in the area.
Mexican authorities discovered the bodies of two executed males along with a message signed by CJNG. The message stated CJNG is united and self-sufficient in its continued fight against kidnappers and extortionists. The message also claimed CJNG was in charge of Jalisco, Guanajuato, Colima, Michoacan and Veracruz.

March 17

The body of a man was found hanging from a bridge in Zapopan, a suburb of Guadalajara, Jalisco state, along with a narcomanta addressed to Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera and signed by well-known Los Zetas leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales. During the previous week, this area was the site of multiple firefights between elements of the Mexican military and the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), an ally of the Sinaloa Federation. The clashes resulted in the arrest of the top leader of CJNG.
A confrontation between gunmen and the Mexican army in Rio Bravo, Tamaulipas state, left one individual dead and eight others injured.
Narcomantas signed by the Knights Templar appeared in several cities in Guanajuato state announcing a temporary halt to violent activities in light of the Pope's visit to the state on March 23.

March 18

Gunmen ambushed a convoy of state and municipal police officers in Teloloapan, Guerrero state, killing 12 and injured 11 others.
Mexican authorities discovered 10 decapitated human heads in Teloloapan, Guerrero state, along with a narcomanta threatening anyone who supports La Familia Michoacan.

March 19

Federal authorities announced the arrest of seven members of La Barredora in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The individuals are accused of three kidnappings and two murders.
An explosive device inside a vehicle exploded in front of the Expreso newspaper offices in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state. No injuries were reported from the blast.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/mexico-security-memo-rise-meth-and-heroin-production

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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Mexico Security Memo.

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Abril 4th 2012, 21:26

Mexico Security Memo: Sinaloa Enforcers Warn of Action in Chihuahua
La Gente Nueva Announces Operations in Chihuahua City

Two narcomantas signed by La Gente Nueva were found hanging from bridges in separate locations April 1 in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state. The narcomantas, or signs bearing a message from criminal organizations, warned police not to interfere as La Gente Nueva patrols the streets of the state capital "cleaning the plaza" of elements of La Linea, an enforcer group for the Juarez cartel. La Gente Nueva, itself an enforcer group for the Sinaloa Federation, is used primarily to fight Sinaloa rivals such as the Juarez cartel and Los Zetas.

The messages appear to be the Sinaloa Federation's response to the New Juarez Cartel (NCJ), a rebranded version of La Linea, which has recently targeted police officers in Chihuahua state and alleged that Sinaloa is colluding with law enforcement. Despite the increase in NCJ activity, this is the first direct response from the Sinaloa Federation to La Linea. The March 26 death of Gente Nueva cell leader Jorge Ricardo "El Chule" Gutierrez Corral in Chihuahua city -- and the subsequent banner posted March 28 on an overpass in Chihuahua city describing Gutierrez's role as a Sinaloa Federation operative who colluded with law enforcement -- may have prompted La Gente Nueva's announcement.

NCJ has not demonstrated the same level of sophistication possessed by its previous incarnation, La Linea. The decline primarily stems from the continued splintering of the Juarez cartel as a result of Sinaloa's success controlling the Ciudad Juarez plaza. The capabilities of La Linea itself have suffered since the arrest of its top leader, Jesus Antonio "El Diego" Acosta Hernandez, and his subsequent replacement. NCJ tactics typically included drive-by shootings and hitting isolated soft targets like off-duty police officers. While La Gente Nueva's reported activity has been limited since the capture of its founder, Noel "El Flaco" Salgueiro Nevarez, in October 2011, it has far more resources to rely on due to its connection to the Sinaloa Federation. Should the threats in its recent narcomanta be carried out, inter-gang violence will likely increase, posing a significant threat to NCJ in Chihuahua city.
Los Zetas Respond to Sinaloa in Culiacan

Mexican authorities on March 28 discovered five dismembered male bodies along with a narcomanta signed "Z-40" in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, denouncing Sinaloa Federation leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera. The message asks how Guzman can control another state (likely referring to Tamaulipas) when he cannot even control his home state of Sinaloa. The display comes two days after a message signed "El Chapo" was left with seven dismembered bodies in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.

As with the March 26 narcomanta signed "El Chapo" in Nuevo Laredo, the claim of authorship cannot be verified, but the messages appear to reveal the increasingly intense turf wars between Los Zetas and Sinaloa. Given that the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas both have launched offensives against one another, there will likely be significant security repercussions throughout contested areas. Still, the Zetas response in Culiacan does not necessarily suggest a new campaign in Sinaloa Federation's home state.
March 27

Gunmen killed two drug dealers in Ecatepec, Mexico state. The gunmen approached the drug dealers and opened fire, killing one while the other fled. After catching the fleeing drug dealer, the gunmen forced him to his knees and shot him in the head.
Mexican authorities discovered the body of the deputy director of municipal police in Zamora, Michoacan state. The deputy director's body was underneath his police vehicle and handcuffed, and had sustained multiple gunshot wounds.
Federal Police detained five Los Zetas operators in the Texcoco-Ecatepec region of Mexico state. Authorities also seized three submachine guns, a grenade, a .38 caliber pistol and various tactical gear.
Federal Police detained five La Barredora members in the Renacimiento neighborhood of Acapulco, Guerrero state. The individuals were linked to extortion and drug dealing in the area.
A firefight between gunmen and the Mexican military in Gabriel Zamora, Michoacan state, resulted in the death of one gunman. The firefight began when military elements approached gunmen during a patrol. No arrests were made.
Three gunmen -- two men and one woman -- were killed after a confrontation with Federal Police in Noria de Angeles, Zacatecas state.
Gunmen shot and killed a 21-year-old man in front of the Hotel Ibis in Cancun, Quintana Roo state. Investigators are looking for a taxi driver who was seen at the hotel.
The Mexican army seized a weapons cache in an abandoned gas tanker in San Juan de Sabinas, Coahuila state. The seizure consisted of 50 assault rifles, a grenade launcher and more than 11,000 rounds of ammunition.

March 28

Mexican authorities discovered five dismembered male bodies left with a message signed "Z-40" in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. The presumed Los Zetas message denounced Sinaloa Federation leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera. The display comes two days after a message signed "El Chapo" was left with seven dismembered bodies in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.
Authorities discovered the body of an executed woman in a public park in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
State police arrested Jose Eduardo "El Comandante Capulina" Corrales Vega, Los Zetas' plaza boss in Tepeapulco, Hidalgo state. Corrales Vega is connected to at least 12 murders, according to authorities.
The Mexican navy discovered 41 kilograms (90 pounds) of marijuana, stored as wrapped bricks, floating off the coast of Cozumel, Quintana Roo state.
Gunmen opened fire on a group of off-duty police officers eating outside a residence in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, killing five officers and wounding three others. Unconfirmed witness accounts stated as many as 20 gunmen attacked the officers.

March 29

Authorities discovered the bodies of two men in Mocorito, Sinaloa state. The bodies were bound and bore signs of torture.
A mutilated body was found in a plastic container in Cadereyta Jimenez, Nuevo Leon state, along with a message directed toward a rival gang.
Three bodies were discovered in shallow graves in the La Mica neighborhood of Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Authorities discovered two blindfolded bodies whose hands were bound in Navolato, Sinaloa state.
Gunmen shot and killed a car dealer on his way to work in Navolato, Sinaloa state.
A kidnapping victim managed to free himself and kill his captors and two bystanders before being shot and killed by municipal police in Tijuana, Baja California state. As the two kidnappers brought the victim to their safe-house, the victim freed himself, grabbed a nearby AK-47 assault rifle and killed his captors. The man then fled the house and stole a vehicle after shooting the vehicle's driver and a bodyguard. When confronted by the municipal police, the kidnapped man fired at the officers and was killed.
Two gunmen shot and killed a municipal police officer in Tijuana, Baja California state. The officer had survived previous attacks in 2008 and 2011.
About 405 kilograms of marijuana was seized by the Mexican military in Tamaulipas state. The first seizure, in Rio Bravo, weighed 100 kilograms while the second seizure, in Reynosa, weighed 305 kilograms.
Citizens in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state, created roadblocks with taxis and trucks while holding up signs denouncing the military presence in Tamaulipas state. The citizens denounced human rights abuses by the military.
The municipal police commander of Perote, Veracruz state, was shot and killed by gunmen traveling in a vehicle.

March 30

Mexican authorities discovered the body of an executed man with bound hands and feet in Tlajomulco de Zuniga, Jalisco state.
Gunmen kidnapped a Federal Police officer while traveling along the National Highway in Nuevo Leon state. Authorities discovered the police officer's vehicle in San Nicolas, Nuevo Leon state.
Authorities discovered the body of a Durango state police commander in a residence in Ocampo, Durango state. The body had sustained several gunshot wounds.
Federal Police detained four members of the Independent Cartel of Acapulco in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Thieves attempting to siphon fuel from a Petroleos Mexicanos pipeline started a fire that destroyed one vehicle in Guadalajara, Jalisco state.

March 31

Mexican authorities discovered the charred bodies of three individuals left inside a vehicle that had been set on fire.
Gunmen shot and killed two men and injured a third in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Authorities discovered the body of Ramiro Ortiz Aguirre, a former state attorney general of Durango state, in Estacion El Chorro, Durango state. The victim was kidnapped March 28. According to authorities, Ortiz was strangled to death.

April 1

Gunmen opened fire on a TV Azteca building in Pachuca, Hidalgo state. No injuries were reported.
Mexican authorities discovered the bodies of five individuals in a vehicle in Ecatepec, Mexico state. A message was left with the bodies but its content has not been revealed.
Unidentified individuals hung a narcomanta from a bridge in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state. The message, signed La Gente Nueva, warned police not to interfere when the group patrols the streets to "clean the plaza" of elements of La Linea, an enforcer group of the Juarez cartel.
Gunmen shot and killed four individuals in Marco Castellanos, Michoacan state, near the border with Jalisco state. The gunmen left a message signed "Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion" with the bodies and warned of a similar fate for its rivals, specifically a man named Jesus Barajas.
Authorities discovered a decapitated body wrapped in a blanket and an accompanying message in Garcia, Nuevo Leon state. The message was signed "CDG," referring to the Gulf cartel.
Authorities discovered the body of Jose Valdez Baldenegro, a drummer for the band Enigma Norteno, in San Manuel, Sinaloa state, near Culiacan. The man was reported missing March 31.

April 2

Authorities discovered the bodies of three men in Cancun, Quintana Roo state. Three vehicles were near the bodies, one of which was registered as a taxi. Authorities said the killings are connected to the March 27 murder outside of Hotel Ibis in Cancun.
Unidentified individuals kidnapped, tortured and executed three men in Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan state.
Narcomantas signed by the Knights Templar were placed in several areas of various municipalities in eastern Michoacan state. The messages deny the Knights Templar is a group of drug traffickers or criminals. The messages also claim Knights Templar worked with meat and tortilla vendors in lowering the price of their products for citizens of Michoacan.
Mexican authorities discovered the bodies of two decapitated men in a truck parked outside a car dealership in Cadereyta Jimenez, Nuevo Leon state.

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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Re: Mexico Security Memo.

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Enero 17th 2013, 20:42

yupi ya sacaron otros reportes liberados :)

Mexico's Drug War: Persisting Violence and a New President

January 17, 2013 | 1000 GMT

Stratfor

Editor's Note: This week's Security Weekly summarizes our annual Mexico drug cartel report, in which we assess the most significant developments of 2012 and provide updated profiles of the country's powerful criminal cartels as well as a forecast for 2013. The report is a product of the coverage we maintain through our Mexico Security Memo, quarterly updates and other analyses that we produce throughout the year as part of the Mexico Security Monitor service.

In 2013, violence in Mexico likely will remain a significant threat nationwide to bystanders, law enforcement, military and local businesses. Overall levels of violence decreased during 2011, but cartel operations and competition continued to afflict several regions of Mexico throughout 2012. These dangers combined with continued fracturing among cartels, such as Los Zetas, could cause overall violence to increase this year.
A New President

2013 will be the first full year in office for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who campaigned on promises to stem cartel violence. The most significant of his initiatives is his plan to consolidate and restructure federal law enforcement in Mexico. Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party has introduced legislation that would switch oversight of the federal police, among other entities, away from the Public Security Secretariat to the Interior Ministry. The president also announced plans to bring the state police from each of Mexico's 31 states under a unified federal command. Pena Nieto has frequently stated his plans to create a national gendarmerie that would serve as a supplemental paramilitary force for tackling violent organized criminal groups. During a Dec. 17 conference, he announced that this new organization initially would have 10,000 personnel trained by the Mexican army.

But 2013 is not likely to see any significant changes as a direct result of Pena Nieto's domestic security policies since they will take time to produce results. For example, the gendarmerie would not likely become an effective operational force until after 2013, because training requires time. Even after such a gendarmerie is up and running, it would face many of the same issues encountered after previous efforts to create new law enforcement bodies. And restructuring law enforcement at the federal level does nothing to address one of the main factors driving Mexico's cartel violence, namely the continual fracturing of organized criminal groups. After his Dec. 1 inauguration, Pena Nieto indicated that the almost 50,000 military troops conducting operations against organized crime will continue in their current role in the near term, reinforcing our forecast that there will not be observable changes as a result of his new policies in the first quarter of 2013.
Overall Violence

Homicides and other violent activity in Mexico including kidnappings, extortion, assaults and robberies linked to cartels did not increase in 2012, ending a trend of increasing annual homicides since 2006. But the drop does not indicate any significant shift toward peace among Mexican cartels. Inter-cartel turf wars in Ciudad Juarez, once one of the most violent areas of Mexico, have continued to decline in violence since 2010. Similarly, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states have also seen reductions in violence.

Other forms of cartel-related violence, including kidnappings, extortion and open conflicts with authorities, remained high during 2012 and are likely to increase. Inter-cartel violence thus remains a significant security threat to many of Mexico's urban areas, specifically in the states of Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Guerrero, Jalisco, Coahuila and Michoacan.
Status of Mexico's Major Cartels
Los Zetas

Los Zetas remained the most active, widely operating criminal organization in Mexico in 2012. While the group did not expand its area of operations in 2012, the organization did solidify its operations in states where it had a significant presence, such as Jalisco, and demonstrated notable violent acts in other states, such as Sinaloa.

Perhaps the most significant shift within Los Zetas involved a transition in its top leadership. It became apparent in 2012 that No. 2 leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales had gradually surpassed his former boss, Zetas leader and founding member Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano, for control of the group.

Although Los Zetas have been resilient in the face of previous leadership losses, this does not mean the transition to Trevino will happen without a struggle in 2013.

Los Zetas consist of semi-autonomous cells operating throughout their area of operations, with high-level leaders like Trevino coordinating the cells. Should any of these cells question Trevino's leadership, violent rifts within the organization could emerge. For example, in the summer of 2012, Zetas leader in north-central Mexico Ivan "El Taliban" Velazquez Caballero went to war with Lazcano and Trevino. Despite his arrest, Velazquez's network is still at war with Los Zetas, posing an increased threat to their control over Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi and Coahuila states.

Trevino must ensure that no similar betrayal by his plaza bosses occurs again, since such defections offer Zetas rivals, such as the Gulf cartel or Sinaloa Federation, a potential ally against Los Zetas. Should a new rift form during 2013, violence likely would increase substantially in any area where Los Zetas are confronted by those former Zetas. But if the leadership can maintain cohesion, Los Zetas will remain one of the two dominant criminal organizations in Mexico during 2013.
Gulf Cartel

By the beginning of 2012, the Gulf cartel had been reduced to operating in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon states, where violence between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas continued. The Gulf cartel also continued to suffer significant losses from targeted military operations and to suffer from an internal divide between two factions, Los Rojos and Los Metros. But violence between the factions apparently has been minimal, and the Gulf cartel has continued to function as a single organization.

Supporting the Gulf cartel against Los Zetas is a strategic necessity for the Sinaloa Federation and the Knights Templar, allowing them to bolster their hold over their lucrative trafficking routes and counter the aggressive expansion of Los Zetas. It also forces the Zetas into a two-front war, disrupting their offensives against Sinaloa and the Knights Templar in the west.

The Gulf cartel received another significant boost to its war with Los Zetas when former Zetas plaza boss Velazquez declared war on Los Zetas, confirmed in August 2012.

On the downside, whoever has assumed control over Gulf cartel operations is likely dependent on the group's main allies to maintain control. For the time being, this has likely turned the Gulf cartel into an operational arm of its much stronger allies, and the Gulf cartel can remain viable only as long as the Knights Templar or Sinaloa Federation continue to back it. Unless Los Zetas suffer substantial losses, whether due to rival incursions, another organizational split or military operations, the Gulf cartel will not likely regain independence in its operational capabilities during 2013.
Sinaloa Federation

The Sinaloa Federation retained its areas of operation again in 2012. Through alliances with smaller criminal organizations, such as the Gulf cartel, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (although a divide between it and the Sinaloa Federation may have developed in the second half of 2012) and the Knights Templar, the Sinaloa Federation continued its assault on its principal rival nationwide, Los Zetas.

In addition to maintaining its areas of operation, the Sinaloa Federation continued to solidify control over the highly lucrative plazas of Ciudad Juarez and Chihuahua city, Chihuahua state, after pushing out its principal rival in the region, the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization, also known as the Juarez cartel. The Sinaloa Federation's success correlated with a substantial drop in homicides in the two cities.

Although 2012 saw continued Sinaloa successes in Ciudad Juarez and sustained assaults against Los Zetas via proxy groups, the group did experience intensified regional conflicts in its strongholds. During the summer of 2012, Los Mazatlecos -- a group with ties to the former Beltran Leyva Organization -- demonstrated substantial and increasing influence in northern Sinaloa state. Meanwhile, as the Sinaloa Federation pushed the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization and La Linea, its allied enforcer arm, out of Ciudad Juarez, La Linea revived its hope of surviving as a criminal organization by focusing on control of transportation routes and areas of illicit drug production in the Sierra Madre Occidental in western Chihuahua state. While the Sinaloa Federation has not been able to eject La Linea from western Chihuahua state, it can maintain its organization through its control of a substantial percentage of the drug trade throughout Mexico.

Indicators also emerged of new challenges to Sinaloa control in northern Sonora state. Cities such as Puerto Penasco, Agua Prieta and Sonoyta saw increased executions and shootouts indicative of inter-cartel violence during 2012, suggesting a rival of the Sinaloa Federation is contesting drug trafficking routes into the United States through northern Sonora state. It is uncertain who this rival is, though La Linea and Los Mazatlecos are possible suspects.

Despite the regional conflicts within the Sinaloa Federation's areas of operation, nothing suggests the criminal organization's trafficking operations are under any significant threat. Violence in its regional conflicts with smaller organizations such as La Linea in western Chihuahua state and Los Mazatlecos in northern Sinaloa state will likely persist through 2013. The rural nature of the contested regions means that violence should not become as intense as that seen in urban turf wars throughout Mexico.
Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion

2012 saw a continued expansion of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion into several Mexican states, including Morelos, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero and Quintana Roo. As a byproduct of its acquired geographic reach, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion began taking control of drug trafficking routes for itself and local criminal enterprises like extortion and retail drug sales in areas such as Veracruz city or Colima state.

This expansion brought the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and another Sinaloa Federation ally, the Knights Templar, into the same operational spaces, such as Michoacan, Guerrero and Guanajuato states. By April 2012, it had become apparent that the Knights Templar and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion had begun a war with each other. It is unclear what role, if any, the Sinaloa Federation may have had with the conflict between its two allies.

Several factors suggest the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion splintered from the Sinaloa Federation in 2012. The organization rapidly expanded in 2012 into a prominent cartel -- and thus a possible future rival for other criminal groups. Its conflict with another Sinaloa Federation ally as well as several narcomantas in Jalisco state and statements by a rival criminal leader of La Resistencia also contribute to the splinter theory. But there are no indications so far that a rivalry has formed between the two groups.

Nothing suggests the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion's areas of operation have been reduced or that the group's ability to traffic drugs has been hindered. If in addition to its current geographic reach in Mexico, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion is capable of delivering illicit drugs into the United States, the group essentially would have access to the same levels of the supply chain as Mexico's dominant cartels.
Knights Templar

During 2012, the Knights Templar solidified itself as the successor to La Familia Michoacana, from which it split in 2011. The Knights Templar now operates as the dominant criminal organization of Michoacan state and as a significant criminal actor in states such as Morelos, Guanajuato, Queretaro and Guerrero and southeastern Jalisco. It is unclear in what capacity and where La Familia Michoacana continues to exist. Although sporadic violence between the Knights Templar and La Familia Michoacana may occur in 2013, it is unlikely that La Familia Michoacana will regain any of its footholds in a battle against the Knights Templar without substantial help from another major criminal organization, such as Los Zetas. The Knights Templar might even absorb the remainder of La Familia Michoacana in 2013.

The Knights Templar has become increasingly public about its conflict with Los Zetas. While there have been no explicit indications of expanding violence between the two organizations, it is certainly possible that the Knights Templar will begin assaulting Los Zetas in the latter's strongholds during 2013. Even without a direct conflict between Knights Templar gunmen and Zetas gunmen in Zetas-controlled territories, it is likely the Knights Templar is supporting the Gulf cartel in its conflict against Los Zetas by sending gunmen to the northeast to support Gulf cartel efforts.

Authorities have targeted lower-level Knights Templar members in response to brazen acts of coordinated violence by the group. But arrests so far will likely have a minimal impact on the group due to the low-level status of those detained.

Since there are currently no indicators that the operational capabilities of the Knights Templar are under threat by a rival organization, the group will likely continue its heavy propaganda campaign in multiple states of Mexico in 2013. Additionally, should the Knights Templar confront Los Zetas in a more direct manner than supporting an allies' conflict, such as by attempting to take control of territory itself, violence would likely increase more in the northeastern states. Furthermore, retaliatory attacks conducted by Los Zetas against the Knights Templar in the Michoacan area could be expected.

Editor's Note: As an additional custom intelligence service geared toward organizations with operations or interests in the region, we now offer the Mexico Security Monitor, an annual service that provides more detailed and in-depth coverage of the situation. If you are interested in learning about this new fee-based custom service, please contact aboutmsm@stratfor.com.
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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Alerta Stratfor de más violencia entre cárteles; vaticinan disputa por ruta de droga.

Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Marzo 1st 2013, 13:01

Alertan de más violencia entre cárteles; vaticinan disputa por ruta de droga.

Análisis de Stratfor advierte de un choque entre Nueva Generación y El Chapo; la violencia aumentaría en el noroeste del país

José Carreño Figueras

01/03/2013 07:29

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO, 1 de marzo.- El asesinato del jefe del narcotráfico José Manuel El Gordo Garibay Félix, en Guadalajara, podría llevar a un choque entre el cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación y la organización criminal conocida como la Federación de Sinaloa, señaló el grupo de análisis e inteligencia privada Stratfor.

El escenario de la confrontación sería el noroeste de México, “donde el sindicato con sede en Jalisco intenta mantener sus rutas de tráfico a través del territorio de Sinaloa”, indica Stratfor en un texto en el que analiza el panorama luego de ese homicidio.

Si la reciente muerte del líder de un grupo aliado criminal obstaculiza las operaciones del cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación en la región, “la violencia probablemente se intensificará en tanto que el cártel busca formas alternativas para asegurar el flujo de su producto a los Estados Unidos”.

El pasado 23 de febrero las autoridades descubrieron el cuerpo de El Gordo Garibay Félix, líder de una red regional de narcotraficantes conocida como Los Garibay, al lado de una carretera cerca de Guadalajara, estado de Jalisco.

El cuerpo estaba semidesnudo, tenía indicios de tortura y una herida de bala en la cabeza, señas comúnmente relacionadas con los asesinatos cometidos por narcotraficantes.

Se desconoce quién mató a Garibay, pero de acuerdo con Stratfor su grupo hizo posible que el cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación opere en territorio controlado por la Federación de Sinaloa, que agrupa a varias organizaciones de narcotraficantes, entre ellas la de Joaquín El Chapo Guzmán.

Además, si se considera el reciente brote de violencia entre la Federación de Sinaloa y el cártel con sede en Jalisco, parece probable que el asesino haya sido una persona afiliada a dicha agrupación de organizaciones delictivas.

Alianzas

El grupo de Los Garibay opera principalmente en los municipios de Mexicali, en el estado de Baja California, y Puerto Peñasco, Sonora, y recientemente se alió con el cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, un ex aliado de la Federación de Sinaloa que en 2012 expandió sus operaciones en Jalisco, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, Veracruz y Quintana Roo, entre otras entidades federativas.

Stratfor señaló que el grupo de Jalisco es visto ahora como un rival de la Federación de Sinaloa.

El cártel con sede en Jalisco se basa en las relaciones operativas con grupos más pequeños y localizados en el noroeste de México para el transporte de sus productos a través del territorio de Sinaloa.

La alianza con el cártel de Los Garibay destaca una ruta a través de los estados de Sonora y Baja California.

Stratfor añadió que el de Los Garibay no es el único grupo criminal local activo en la región de Mexicali. Además de sus propias operaciones de tráfico, la Federación de Sinaloa se apoya también en grupos delictivos locales en los estados de Sonora y Baja California para facilitar el transporte de drogas ilícitas hacia Estados Unidos.

A mediados de 2012, Los Garibay y una red local de Sinaloa se enfrentaron en una guerra territorial en Mexicali, lo que según Stratfor llevó a “un ligero aumento” de la violencia relacionada al narcotráfico en la región.

Desde entonces, la violencia relacionada con la fractura se ha producido principalmente en el estado de Jalisco, donde Nueva Generación defiende su territorio de varios grupos alineados con la Federación de Sinaloa, incluidos Los Caballeros Templarios, el cártel del Golfo y de Los Coroneles.

Pero dado que el cártel con sede en Jalisco todavía tiene que mover sus productos fuera del país, la violencia probablemente se extenderá con los intentos de dicho cártel por asegurarse las rutas por el norte, señala ese análisis.

En todo caso, advirtió Stratfor, está por verse en qué medida las operaciones del cártel serán afectadas por el asesinato de Garibay, pero es improbable que limite su capacidad para operar en la región y puede, en cambio, propiciar mayores niveles de violencia en el norte de Sonora y los estados de Baja California, ya que el grupo de Jalisco “no tendría más remedio que buscar formas alternativas de transportar su producto de manera segura, sea mediante la contratación de más bandas en la región o mediante el uso de sus propios ejecutores”.

A seis fuegos

El Ejército mexicano tenía identificadas en febrero de 2012 a seis organizaciones criminales que se disputan Jalisco para la siembra, producción y tráfico de estupefacientes.

Se trata de los cárteles de Sinaloa, Jalisco Nueva Generación, La Resistencia, Los Templarios, La Familia y los Beltrán Leyva.

En Jalisco hay una gran producción de droga sintética que se demuestra con la gran cantidad de narcolaboratorios localizados cada año. Es un estado donde hay producción de mariguana en varias de las regiones: Valles, Sureste, Sierra de Amula. Eso genera esta situación que merece atención por parte de las Fuerzas Armadas, aseguró a principios del año pasado la V Región Militar.

De los cinco estados que comprende la V Región: Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Nayarit y Colima, efectivamente es Jalisco donde existe la problemática más acentuada por la presencia de seis cárteles del narcotráfico, añadió.
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Mexico Security Memo. Empty Seguirá la violencia del crimen; Stratfor advierte expansión del narco

Mensaje por Invitado el Abril 3rd 2013, 23:03

Sería un error que se relaje la lucha contra los cárteles, afirma la compañía de inteligencia

Mexico Security Memo. Dudaneneu_g

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO, 30 de marzo.- La transformación del narcotráfico en México “limita” las posibilidades de que el gobierno federal reduzca significativamente la violencia que genera la delincuencia organizada, afirmó Stratfor, empresa global especializada en análisis de inteligencia y seguridad.

A través del trabajo de los expertos Scott Stewart y Tristan Reed, la investigación advierte que los cárteles mexicanos ya se han convertido en organizaciones criminales transnacionales.

El análisis explica que la nueva “narcorrealidad” implica en parte la fragmentación de los cárteles y la diversificación del crimen, lo que dificulta una pronta erradicación de la violencia.

Pese a afirmar que México y Estados Unidos se esfuerzan sin éxito contra el narco, Stratfor alerta que sería un error que el gobierno relaje sus acciones anticrimen, esperando que así se reduzcan los niveles de inseguridad, porque ésta no es generada por el Estado.

“La escalada comenzó mucho antes de que Calderón fuera elegido. El cambio en las rutas del narcotráfico y la competencia entre grupos criminales son el origen de la escalada de la violencia”, explicó la compañía privada de análisis.

Dudan en EU de control oficial de narcoviolencia

La posibilidad de que el gobierno del presidente Enrique Peña Nieto reduzca significativamente la violencia del crimen organizado está muy limitada por una “nueva narcorrealidad”, afirmó la empresa de análisis de inteligencia Stratfor.

La situación ya no es la misma que en 1990 ni la composición de los cárteles o sus actividades son iguales a las de hace una década tampoco, subrayaron los analistas en un texto en el que hicieron hincapié en que, en su mayor parte, la violencia no es iniciada por el gobierno o por sus fuerzas y de hecho que ni siquiera está involucrado en la mayoría de los incidentes.

Subrayó que hay un proceso de fragmentación de los cárteles, debido en parte a la política de los gobiernos de México y Estados Unidos de seguir una estrategia de “decapitación” de los grupos y llevado a la proliferación de organizaciones más pequeñas que se disputan territorios o rutas.

La organización privada estadunidense rechazó la idea de que si el gobierno mexicano fuera a “ablandar” su posición respecto a los delitos contra la salud habría posibilidades de calmar la situación y por tanto disminuiría la violencia y recordó que ésa es una tesis citada con frecuencia.

“Por desgracia, la reducción de los niveles de violencia no es tan simple”, advirtieron los analistas Scott Stewart y Tristan Reed en el texto divulgado por Stratfor.

De acuerdo con su opinión, “la naturaleza y el origen de la violencia en México constriñen severamente el gobierno mexicano. Debido a esas limitaciones, la mera disminución de las acciones gubernamentales contra delitos de drogas tendría poco impacto en el nivel de violencia”.

Uno de los puntos principales es que “dado que el gobierno federal no ha puesto en marcha la mayor parte de la violencia en México, una decisión del gobierno de no desarrollar las investigaciones de drogas haría poco para sofocar la violencia”.

De acuerdo con Stratfor, habría que recordar que si bien la narrativa popular es atribuir el comienzo de la guerra de México contra los cárteles a la campaña lanzada por el ex presidente Felipe Calderón, la verdad es diferente.

“La escalada comenzó mucho antes de que Calderón fuera elegido, y no fueron las acciones del gobierno, sino un cambio en las rutas de contrabando de narcóticos a Estados Unidos y la competencia por las rutas entre grupos criminales mexicanos lo que realmente desencadenó la escalada de la violencia”, precisó.

Igualmente, tras anotar que “hay algunos” que se aferran a la idea de que Peña Nieto puede forjar algún tipo de acuerdo con los cárteles y volver a la forma como se afirma que sus predecesores del Partido Revolucionario Institucional usaron para tratar con los cárteles, Stratfor indicó que la situación en México es muy diferente de lo que era bajo presidentes anteriores, como Ernesto Zedillo y Carlos Salinas de Gortari: “Simplemente, son demasiadas partes móviles y demasiados grupos a los que enfrentar”.

Peor aún, las organizaciones criminales ya no son simplemente cárteles del narcotráfico:

“Durante la última década, los costos de las prolongadas guerras entre los cárteles y el impacto que estas guerras han tenido sobre la capacidad de algunos grupos para producir o traficar drogas han llevado a muchos grupos a diversificar su actividad a otros delitos”, señaló el análisis al enumerar, entre otros, el secuestro, la extorsión, tráfico de personas y robo de vehículos de carga.

Consignó además que Los Zetas obtienen una considerable ganancia con base en el robo de petróleo a Pemex y la piratería de discos compactos.

“Ése es el otro comportamiento criminal que enciende muchas luchas territoriales en áreas que están fuera de las zonas tradicionales de producción de drogas y cruces fronterizos”, señaló.

El punto no es el contrabando hacia Estados Unidos: las autoridades de los dos países se esfuerzan con poco éxito en detener el flujo de drogas y los cárteles tienen un éxito parecido, según Stratfor.

“Pero cuando dos grupos opuestos están en el mismo terreno y venden drogas en las calles, extorsionan negocios o dirigen bandas de secuestradores, es crucial mantener lejos a los competidores para no afectar las ganancias. Este creciente interés en las ventas locales de drogas significa además que las drogas son cada vez más un problema de México y no sólo para los estadunidenses”, afirmó.

Esa derivación hacia el crimen y la distribución de drogas en el mercado interno “es una de las principales causas de la violencia actual en estados como Morelos, México, Jalisco, Guanajuato y Quintana Roo”, indicó el análisis, al puntualizar que el cambio se refleja en la forma en que las autoridades se refieren a esos grupos: los cárteles mexicanos ya no son “OTD”, o sea organizaciones de tráfico de drogas, sino más bien “OCT”, es decir, organizaciones criminales transnacionales.

Esa “nueva narcorrealidad” ya existe en México, concluyó Stratfor: “El ambiente es muy diferente de lo que era en la década de 1990, y no hay vuelta atrás”, amén de que los cambios producidos entre los cárteles mexicanos y la cantidad de violencia que pueden generar sin participación del gobierno, significa que será muy difícil que Peña Nieto y su régimen puedan ignorar las actividades de los cárteles y adopten el enfoque de “no-intervención”.

Efectos

1.- El informe de la agencia toma importancia luego de que está por plantearse la colaboración con EU en la materia.

2.- Una de las aristas de la estrategia nacional en materia de combate a la delincuencia organizada busca atender temas como la prevención del delito.

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2013/03/30/891488


Última edición por snake eyes el Abril 4th 2013, 01:30, editado 1 vez

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Mensaje por Audemunx el Abril 3rd 2013, 23:38

Parece que ahora ya -quieren- se estan dando cuenta que si les afecta lo de las drogas, asi como dijeron en Chicago en un nota publicada estos dias.
PD. Se le paso la fuente companero .

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Mensaje por Invitado el Abril 4th 2013, 01:31

ya esta compañero gracias por la observación!!

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Mensaje por ivan_077 el Abril 2nd 2015, 19:53



La nueva cartografía del narco en 2015
05 de marzo del 2015

Mexico Security Memo. Mapa

Mapa. Foto: EspecialCon la detención de Servando Gómez Martínez “la Tuta”, y la captura de Omar Treviño Morales “Z-42”, la hipótesis lanzada a principios de este año por la consultoría estadounidense en seguridad Stratfor, sobre “balcanización” de las grandes organizaciones del narco en México, parece tomar forma. No solo por la fragmentación, sino por el encono de los grupos que se enfrascaron en luchas territoriales, como el caso del cartel del Golfo, donde la falta de liderazgos consolidados ha echado por la borda la idea de “grandes” organizaciones para dejar paso a las “facciones”. El nuevo mapa del narco quedaría dividido en tres amplias regiones: Sinaloa, Tamaulipas y Tierra Caliente.

México, 5 de marzo.- Miguel Ángel Gallegos Godoy es un hombre de 65 años de edad cuyo perfil ha pasado casi desapercibido para los medios de comunicación nacionales. Apodado “el Micheladas”, Gallegos Godoy aparece en reportes de inteligencia del gobierno federal como el hombre fuerte del tráfico de droga por territorio michoacano. Desde mediados del años pasado está considerado como el heredero de las rutas que pertenecieron a Enrique “Kike” Plancarte, el capo muerto en los primeros meses del 2014 y quien junto Nazario Moreno, también fallecido por esas fechas en un enfrentamiento con fuerzas federales, encabezaron la organización conocida como Caballeros Templarios.

La detención de Servando Gómez Martínez, otro de los jefes de ésta organización, vino a fortalecer al grupo del “Micheladas”, un hombre discreto, hecho a la antigua usanza donde se privilegia el negocio por encima de la violencia y la presencia en los medios. Los reportes a los que se tuvo acceso, fechados en la primavera del 2014, señalan que Gallegos Godoy controla las rutas que pasan por Zicuirán, Ario de Rosales, la Huacana, y la sierra oriente michoacana, del municipio de Huetamo hacia el estado de Guerrero. Es decir, el corazón de la Tierra Caliente que une Michoacán con las montañas guerrerense y varios municipios del sur del Estado de México.

El reporte señala que el “Micheladas” se separó desde hace más de dos años de quien fuera su socio, el fallecido “Kike” Plancarte, quien dominó hasta meses antes de su muerte el mercado de mentanfetaminas en Texas. Junto a Gallegos Godoy se menciona a integrantes de la familia González Valencia, apodados “los Cuinis”, encabezados por José María, quien fue señalado como el cerebro financiero del denominado Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG).

Existe una vena familiar que atraviesa el origen y se asienta en la jefatura del CJNG, según los reportes consultados. José María González Valencia, “el Cuini”, cuya familia es oriunda de Aguililla, Michoacán, es cuñado de Nemesio Oceguera Cervantes, “el Mencho”, quien nació en el poblado de Naranjo de Chila, en éste municipio. Oceguera vivió en Nueva Italia, en Uruapan y en Taretán, después radicó un tiempo en Tijuana. Hoy día se sabe que su familia radica en Zapopan, aunque él se mueve entre el área metropolitana de Guadalajara y poblados jaliscienses cercanos a Michoacán como El Grullo. Sobre José María la prensa nacional ha dado cuenta desde el año pasado que como operador financiero de ésta organización del narco, ha realizado inversiones inmobiliarias en la industria hotelera en Guadalajara y la costa de Jalisco. Una nota del diario Reforma de marzo del año pasado, refería que también tenía cuentas bancarias en Europa.

La esposa de Oceguera Cervantes, hermana de los “Cuinis”, es también prima de una de las mujeres que en vida tuvo “Kike” Plancarte, socio hace más de una década del “Mencho”, cuando ambos trabajaban para la organización que encabezaba a finales de los años 90 los hermanos Valencia, líderes del hoy desaparecido cartel del Milenio.

Los hermanos González Valencia están identificados como los “pioneros” en introducir una “metodología” de la extorsión que utilizaban grupos paramilitares en Colombia. Se trataba de un sistema de “inteligencia” que consistía en revisar el registro de sanidad de la secretaría de agricultura, para checar quienes eran los agricultores con amplias extensiones de producción de aguacate, dónde estaban localizadas sus huertas, y cuánto reportaban en ventas por exportación. De la suma de todo ello se imponía una cuota, a quienes se negaban, les secuestraban o asesinaban familiares como herramienta de presión hasta que cedían. La táctica fue copiada por los Templarios quienes hicieron de poblados como Tancítaro, el mayor productor de aguacate, su fuente de financiación “externa” al tráfico de drogas.

Las tres grandes “narco regiones”

La pérdida de liderazgos le ha dado una nueva dimensión geográfica a las zonas donde las organizaciones del narco tienen sus bastiones. La mutación tomó mayor presencia desde febrero del 2014 cuando fue detenido Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. Las “líneas inferiores” a la cúpula del cartel de Sinaloa tuvieron reacomodos en tres entidades: Sonora, Chihuahua y Baja California Sur. Lo que se tradujo en un incremento de autonomía de jefes intermedios de la organización, mandos regionales, manteniendo el control territorial e incrementando su influencia en línea directa con la jefatura que recae en Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada.

La región noroeste del país, que va de Nayarit, Durango, parte de San Luis, Zacatecas y Coahuila, así como la totalidad de los estados de Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Sonora y la península de Baja California, sería el área hegemónica del cartel de Sinaloa o Pacífico, de acuerdo a un análisis de la consultoría estadounidense en inteligencia Stratfor. El documento fechado en enero pasado, es una prospectiva para el año 2015 sobre los reacomodos en las organizaciones criminales dedicadas al tráfico de drogas, los cuales quedaron divididos en una cartografía con tres grandes regiones: Sinaloa, Tamaulipas y Tierra Caliente.

Los estadounidenses señalan que 2015 será el año de la confirmación de la “balcanización” de las organizaciones, fenómeno que ha tenido en el llamado cartel del Golfo el botón de muestra. Desde principios del 2014 la organización que encabezó hasta el año 2010 Jorge Eduardo Costilla Sánchez, “El Cos” y Ezequiel Cárdenas Guillén, “Tony Tormenta” agudizaron los choques al interior entre las diferentes facciones que llevó a que entre ellos comenzaran a pelear con mayor beligerancia por el control de los pasos fronterizos de Matamoros y Reynosa.

Stratfor no los identifica pero la prensa mexicana ha dado cuenta de que los grupos que pelean por la hegemonía al interior del cartel del Golfo, y que en este 2015 iniciaron con mayor violencia los enfrentamientos, son “los Metros” contra “los Ciclones”, en la frontera; y “los Fresitas” contra “los Panteras” en el sur de Tamaulipas.

También en Tamaulipas con ramificaciones en la zona del Golfo y la península de Yucatán, aparecen los Zetas, el grupo paramilitar que ha perdido liderazgo desde la detención en 2014 de su líder Miguel Treviño Morales. Apenas el miércoles 4 de marzo, el gobierno federal anunció la detención de quien lo sustituyó en el mando, su hermano Omar Treviño Morales, alias “Z-42”. En estas semanas la jefatura de la organización, mermada por las detenciones, estaría por definirse aunque la capacidad operativa, con frentes abiertos contra el cartel del Golfo en territorio tamaulipeco, y contra el Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación en estados como Veracruz, estaría a prueba para refrendar su hegemonía en sus áreas de control.

Dos de las alianzas que tenían los Zetas, con la organización Beltrán Leyva y los Carrillo Fuentes, se vieron “sacudidas” después de la captura el año pasado de los cabecillas, Héctor Beltrán Leyva y Vicente Carrillo Fuentes. La duda que se plantea es si la ausencia de liderazgos fuertes y consolidados en las tres organizaciones, repercutirá en el mantenimiento y control de sus rutas y territorios.

Stratfor identifica a la Tierra Caliente, que geográficamente abarca la región que une los estados de Michoacán, Guerrero y Estado de México, como la zona donde el Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) se alza como la segunda organización hegemónica, después de Sinaloa, con más presencia territorial en el país. Liderados por el “Mencho”, el CJNG se haría con el control del estratégico puerto de Lázaro Cárdenas, por donde entran precursores químicos, además de mantener el dominio en el área de mayor presencia de narco laboratorios y producción de metanfetaminas, como son las zonas serranas de Jalisco y Michoacán.

Al CJNG le favorecería la “balcanización” que se vive en Michoacán y Guerrero, donde la desarticulación de los Caballeros Templarios, devino en el surgimiento de organizaciones locales como “los Viagra” y “Nueva Línea”; mientras en territorio guerrerense pelean “los Rojos”, “Cartel Independiente de Acapulco”, “Guerreros Unidos”, “los Ardillos” y “la Familia”. Todas estas disputas caracterizadas por fuertes episodios de violencia, beneficiarían a mediano plazo a la organización del “Mencho”, el capo que ya está en la mira de las agencias de inteligencia estadounidenses.

Juan Veledíaz

@velediaz424

Estado Mayor
http://estadomayor.mx/52113

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Mensaje por Lanceros de Toluca el Abril 5th 2015, 17:04

Carajo de verdad que necesitamos esa suscripcion a Stratfor.

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